Concept

Exceptional chain — where it appears

A residue class of a damage profile sitting ten degrees or more from the level the rest sit at. The classes at the common level are within 5.55 degrees of it and the exceptions are 12.4 to 160.4 away, so the line is a gap rather than a threshold anybody tuned.

Named by 7 essays across one field — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

Three chains, each moved a third of a turn, on g008 cut at offset 6. The eight chains of a stem that kept a lag of 8, set round the circle, with the three that are displaced marked and their displacements written on. Each is about a third of a turn the same way round, and they sum to -359.6 degrees — one whole turn to within half a degree, on an azimuth grid whose step is a quarter of a degree. A rearrangement that closes by going once round sums to a turn, not to nothing, which is why the test it was set had the wrong number in it.

A cycle sums to a whole turn

The test proposed for whether three displaced chains are a three-cycle was that their displacements sum to zero. Three chains rotating into one another's places each move about a third of a turn the same way round, and a third of a turn three times is a whole turn — which the unfolded test calls the worst row in the census.

mechanism · Damage shape
How far each rearrangement is from closing, against the lag it kept. One bar per excluded cut, its length the distance from the displacements summing to nothing, ordered smallest first, and each labelled with the lag the cut left standing. The seven shortest bars are the cuts that kept a lag of 7 or 8 and the six longest are the cuts that kept 4 or 5, with a gap of 6.3 degrees between the two groups and no row in it. The rule sorts every one of them.

The lag decides whether it closes

Seven of the thirteen excluded rows have displacements that cancel and six do not. Every row that closes kept a lag of seven or eight and every row that does not kept four or five, thirteen times out of thirteen — and then a lattice nobody had cut broke it.

mechanism · Damage shape
The 13 cuts the exchange sets aside, chain by chain. One row per wrecked cut with no balanced pair, one cell per chain of the lag it kept, and the chains displaced away from the common level filled. The lag is printed at the left and the sum of the displacements at the right, folded into half a turn either way. seven of the 13 sum to within 12 degrees of nothing and six do not, and every row that closes kept a lag of 7 or 8 while every row that does not kept 4 or 5. The rows are stacked by that lag.

The rows nobody added up

Seventeen of the census's thirty wrecked cuts come back as one balanced pair of displaced chains, and every claim about the exchange is quantified over those seventeen. The other thirteen were set aside as having three or more exceptions and never looked at again. They are one addition each.

mechanism · Damage shape
The eight rows where the two levels disagree. Each wrecked cut's residue classes drawn as points on a circle of angle, one panel per row. A tick is one class's mean displacement. The solid radius is the densest cluster of them, which is the level this file computes; the pale radius is the median of the class means, which is the level everything in the ablation thread has been measured against. On every one of these rows the median stands on a class that is on its own, and on all 28 rows not drawn the two levels agree to within the exception tolerance of 10 degrees.

A median that is an exception

Every number in the ablation thread is measured against the value most of a wrecked stem's chains sit at, taken as a median so that a few exceptions cannot move it. On eight of thirty-six rows the median stands on a chain sitting by itself.

mechanism · Damage shape
No majority and no balanced pair, over the whole census. One row per wrecked cut. The bar is the share of that row's residue classes sitting at the level they agree on, and the vertical rule is a half — a bar reaching past it has a majority and a median is safe there. The mark at the right says whether the exchange keeps that row. 15 rows are on both lists of 16 and 16, and the two part on g008/6, which is excluded and has a majority of 5 of 8, and l013/4, whose lag is 4 so that a balanced pair leaves two classes each way and a majority is arithmetically unavailable.

No majority and no pair

Whether a wrecked stem's chains agree on a level and whether its exceptions form a balanced pair are computed from different things. Sixteen rows have neither, sixteen have neither, and fifteen rows are in both — and the two they part on are the two most interesting rows in the census.

mechanism · Damage shape
g005 at offset 6, read against two levels. One wrecked cut's four residue classes, drawn twice. On the left the level is the median of the four class means, which falls on the class at -5.5 degrees sitting on its own; three classes are then exceptions and the row is set aside as having no balanced pair, summing to -173.6 degrees. On the right the level is the pair of classes that agree, at -138.6 degrees; two classes are then exceptions, they are adjacent and equal and opposite at 133.1 and 134.2 degrees, and the row is an exchange. The exchange table goes from 20 rows to 21.

The twenty-first row

Recomputing the level moves one row out of the set the exchange sets aside and into the exchange itself. Its hop is four times larger than any the correction was fitted over, and the correction fails on it in the one way it had never failed.

mechanism · Damage shape
How far each set-aside row's rearrangement is from closing, at both levels. Every row the exchange sets aside, placed by how far its displacements sum from nothing after folding. A mark below the line kept a lag of seven or more and one above kept four or five, which is the rule that sorts them. At the median level the rule is wrong on one row of 16, at -22.6 degrees, and the two populations are 6.3 degrees apart. At the recomputed level it is right on every one of 15 — one row having left the set entirely — and the gap is 3.2 degrees, with the nearest open row at 12.1 against a threshold of 12.

The rule comes back

A rule sorting the awkward rows was right fifteen times in sixteen, with the one failure blamed on a statistic. Recomputing the statistic makes it fifteen of fifteen — and halves the gap the line is drawn in, which is the price.

mechanism · Damage shape

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Claim testingHonest limitsResidue classDamage profileExchangeNegative resultFalsifiabilityArtefactMeasurementOut of sampleSummary statisticCensus design

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