Phyllotaxis
the spirals are counted, not admired
Concept

Out of sample — where it appears

A test of a rule on cases it was not read off. A rule scored on the rows that produced it can only lose to a worse description of them, so a perfect in-sample score is the state a rule most needs testing in rather than evidence that it is a law.

Named by 5 essays across 2 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

How far each rearrangement is from closing, against the lag it kept. One bar per excluded cut, its length the distance from the displacements summing to nothing, ordered smallest first, and each labelled with the lag the cut left standing. The seven shortest bars are the cuts that kept a lag of 7 or 8 and the six longest are the cuts that kept 4 or 5, with a gap of 6.3 degrees between the two groups and no row in it. The rule sorts every one of them.

The lag decides whether it closes

Seven of the thirteen excluded rows have displacements that cancel and six do not. Every row that closes kept a lag of seven or eight and every row that does not kept four or five, thirteen times out of thirteen — and then a lattice nobody had cut broke it.

mechanism · Damage shape The hops the correction is fitted over, with the new one at the near end. Each cluster of rows placed by the lag it kept and the angle of the hop that lag keeps. The four the correction was fitted over run from 19.5 to 39.1 degrees; the new one sits at 12.78 degrees, a third smaller than any of them. A fifth point beyond the near end of a fitted range is a test of the fit, where a fifth point between two old ones would mostly have been a restatement.

A fifth cluster

A correction to the exchange's size was fitted over four hop clusters and its own file said so. A search turned up a fifth, at a hop smaller than any of the four, and the rule is right on it — which is what a prediction being confirmed looks like when the confirmation is worth having.

cylinder · Ablation g005 at offset 6, read against two levels. One wrecked cut's four residue classes, drawn twice. On the left the level is the median of the four class means, which falls on the class at -5.5 degrees sitting on its own; three classes are then exceptions and the row is set aside as having no balanced pair, summing to -173.6 degrees. On the right the level is the pair of classes that agree, at -138.6 degrees; two classes are then exceptions, they are adjacent and equal and opposite at 133.1 and 134.2 degrees, and the row is an exchange. The exchange table goes from 20 rows to 21.

The twenty-first row

Recomputing the level moves one row out of the set the exchange sets aside and into the exchange itself. Its hop is four times larger than any the correction was fitted over, and the correction fails on it in the one way it had never failed.

mechanism · Damage shape How far each set-aside row's rearrangement is from closing, at both levels. Every row the exchange sets aside, placed by how far its displacements sum from nothing after folding. A mark below the line kept a lag of seven or more and one above kept four or five, which is the rule that sorts them. At the median level the rule is wrong on one row of 16, at -22.6 degrees, and the two populations are 6.3 degrees apart. At the recomputed level it is right on every one of 15 — one row having left the set entirely — and the gap is 3.2 degrees, with the nearest open row at 12.1 against a threshold of 12.

The rule comes back

A rule sorting the awkward rows was right fifteen times in sixteen, with the one failure blamed on a statistic. Recomputing the statistic makes it fifteen of fifteen — and halves the gap the line is drawn in, which is the price.

mechanism · Damage shape The 17 rows of the exchange table, gathered by the lag they kept. One bar per surviving lag, its length the number of rows the table holds at that lag, with the hop that lag's stems keep written beside it. The hop is nearly constant inside a lag, so a correction fitted over 17 rows is fitted over four hops — which is the denominator that matters and is much smaller than the row count suggests. Adding a lag to the table is worth more than adding rows at a lag already in it.

A family that is a multiple

When a wrecked cut keeps a family that is not one of the lattice's counted pair, the first case looked like a rule: it was half of one of them. The second case is four times the other, which makes the rule a coincidence and leaves a weaker statement that is probably the true one.

cylinder · Rung interior

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Claim testingHonest limitsFalsifiabilityContact familyExceptional chainExchangeHop lengthNegative resultAblationResidue classSample sizeArtefact

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