The rows nobody added up
Worth reading first: The damage has a period · The organ that was taken away.
A wrecked stem’s displacement profile folds onto the lag it kept, giving one chain per residue. Most chains sit at a common level and a few do not, and the ones that do not are what the exchange is about.
Seventeen of the census’s thirty wrecked cuts come back as one balanced pair: two adjacent chains displaced in opposite directions by the same amount. The exchange’s direction, its location and its size are all quantified over those seventeen.
The other thirteen
They were set aside as three or more exceptional chains, which is a reasonable thing to write and is not quite what the set is.
Eleven of the thirteen do carry three or more exceptions. The other two carry exactly two —
l020 cut at offsets 4 and 5 — and they are outside the exchange because their two exceptions
are both displaced the same way: at −89.7 and −64.8 degrees on one, and −89.9 and −137.0 on
the other.
Both are cuts of the same lattice at neighbouring offsets, which is the ordinary shape of a census row and is why the two are one observation rather than two.
A pair that is not equal and opposite is not a pair
That is the whole of the discrepancy and it is worth naming because it changes a denominator. The exclusion the exchange actually makes is rows with no balanced pair, which is thirteen. The exclusion it was described with is rows with three or more exceptions, which is eleven.
Nothing was computed wrongly. The code has always used the first and the prose has always said the second, and the two differ by two rows that nobody would have found without adding them up.
What balanced means, exactly
Two chains, adjacent in the residue labelling, displaced in opposite directions by amounts agreeing to within a twentieth of their mean. The bound is loose enough for the azimuth grid and tight enough that an unequal pair fails.
The claim it tests is that a pair of adjacent chains is displaced in opposite directions by the same amount, which is what a chain slipped by one place would do. A swap would give a different signature in the quantity that measures the slip.
So what are the thirteen
Rows with three, four, five or six exceptional chains, plus the two with an unbalanced pair. The counts are: four rows with three exceptions, two with four, two with five, three with six, and the two with two.
That is a wider range than three or more suggests. Six exceptional chains out of eight is most of the profile off the common level, which is a different object from a pair with a stray attached.
The question they were set aside with
It was specific: are three exceptions a three-cycle — three chains rotating into one another’s places — or a pair plus a stray? And the test proposed for it was that a three-cycle’s displacements sum to zero.
That is an addition per row and nothing had done it. Thirteen additions, on numbers that have been on disk since the census was built.
The test as proposed is wrong
Three chains that rotate into one another’s places each move about a third of a turn the same way round, and a third of a turn three times is a whole turn rather than nothing.
That is not a quibble. The census contains exactly one clean three-cycle and the unfolded test calls it the worst row in the table: its displacements sum to −359.6 degrees, which is the largest sum in the census by a factor of two and is one turn to four parts in ten thousand.
So every sum is folded
Into half a turn either way, with the raw value carried beside it so the distinction stays visible. On twelve of the thirteen rows the two readings agree; on the thirteenth they differ by a whole turn and the folded one is the right one.
That is the correction this reading makes to the question it was given, and it is worth more than the answer, because a test with the wrong number in it would have rejected the one row that answers it.
What the additions give
Folded, seven of the thirteen sum to within ten and a half degrees of nothing and six sit sixteen and a half to a hundred and seventy-four degrees away.
So the excluded set is not one thing. About half of it is a closed rearrangement — the chains end where chains began — and about half is not, and that split is decided by something specific.
The gap the line sits in
Ten and a half degrees on one side and sixteen and nine tenths on the other, so the threshold at twelve sits in a gap of six point three degrees.
That is the thinnest gap this thread has drawn a line in and it is reported as such. The comparable gaps elsewhere are wide: the classes at the common level are within 5.55 degrees of it and the exceptions are 12.4 to 160.4 away, which is a gap of nearly seven on a scale ten times larger.
The control, which is the seventeen
A test that says yes to everything says nothing, so the seventeen rows the exchange does cover were added up too. They close within 4.6 degrees, and eleven of the seventeen within one.
They close by construction: a balanced pair is two displacements that are equal and opposite, so their sum is nothing to within the tolerance that defines them. That is exactly why they are the control — the addition returns what it must on rows where the answer is known.
What a closed rearrangement means
That the displacements of the chains that moved cancel, once folded. Physically: the organs that went somewhere else went to places other organs vacated, and nothing was left over.
An open one means they did not. Something in the profile has a net displacement that the exceptional chains do not account for, which either means the common level is not where the median put it or that the rearrangement is not confined to the chains flagged.
The second of those is checkable
Adding every class rather than only the exceptional ones gives almost the same answer on every row: the two agree to within a degree and a half throughout.
That is what it should do, since a class at the common level contributes nothing by construction. It is worth doing because it rules out the reading that the open rows are open because of many small displacements adding up rather than because of the flagged ones.
What the thirteen are worth
They are a sixth of the census’s thirty rows plus a bit, they were excluded for a good reason, and the reason has nothing to do with them being uninformative.
The exchange is defined on a balanced pair. A row without one has no exchange, so it cannot contribute to a claim about direction, location or size. What it can contribute to is a claim about rearrangements more generally, and nothing had asked for one.
The habit this is an instance of
A design excludes rows for a stated reason and the excluded set becomes invisible. It is not a mistake — the exclusion is right — and the set goes on sitting in the table with nobody reading it.
The same thing happened to the endpoint column of the slot design, which every row carries and no claim uses. The cheapest audit of any table in this collection is to look at what its design does not read.
What it cost to read them
An addition per row on numbers already computed. Nothing was grown, nothing was swept, and the whole reading is arithmetic over a table that has been on disk since the damage census was built.
That is the cheapest thing in this collection to have produced a finding, and the finding is the one in the essay about the cycle.
What is not claimed
That the thirteen are a population worth generalising over. Thirteen rows sit on seven lattices, several of them cut at neighbouring offsets, so the independent observations number seven at best.
Every claim made about them is stated with that denominator attached, and the one rule that does sort them is tested again on a lattice from outside the census rather than left at its in-sample score.
Where the common level comes from
One detail the additions depend on. The level most chains sit at is taken as the median of the class means rather than their mean, so that a handful of exceptions cannot drag it.
That choice is what makes an exception an exception. With a mean, a row with six large displacements out of eight would have a level pulled towards them and the exceptions would partly cancel themselves out of existence; with a median it stays where the quiet classes are as long as most of them are quiet.
On a row with six exceptions out of eight, most of them are not quiet, and the median is one of the exceptions. That is a real limit of the reading and it applies to three of the thirteen.
What that does to those three rows
It does not obviously break them. Two of the three close and one does not, which is the same split the other ten show, and their sums are among the smallest in the table.
But it is worth flagging rather than buried, because a sum measured against a level that is itself displaced is a sum with an offset in it. On a row with six of eight chains flagged, what common level means is doing more work than the phrase admits.
And what a better level would be
The mode of the class means, or the level that most of them cluster at by some measure that does not assume a majority. Nothing was changed, for the reason that runs through this collection: altering a definition retrospectively makes every earlier number incomparable.
It is written down as the thing to try if the excluded rows ever carry a claim heavier than the ones made here.
The two unbalanced rows, on their own
They deserve a paragraph, since they are the reason the count is thirteen. Both are l020 — the
Lucas branch at a rise of 0.020 — cut at offsets 4 and 5, and both keep a lag of 4.
Offset 4 displaces two chains by −89.7 and −64.8 degrees; offset 5 displaces two by −89.9 and −137.0. In both cases the two chains move the same way round, so nothing cancels and the sums are −154.4 and +133.1 degrees folded.
Two chains moving the same way is not a rearrangement that closes and it is not obviously anything else either. With a lag of four there are only four chains, so two of them moving together is half the profile.
Which is where a small lag bites
A profile at a lag of four has four classes, and a profile at a lag of eight has eight. The same number of exceptional chains is a very different fraction of the two.
Three exceptions out of four leaves one quiet class to define a level from; three out of eight leaves five. So the excluded rows at small lags are systematically harder to read than the ones at large lags, and that difference turns out to sort them — though whether it is the lag or the number of chains is not separable here, since they are the same number.
What a reader should carry
That the exchange’s excluded set is thirteen rows rather than eleven, because two of them carry a pair that is not equal and opposite rather than three or more exceptions.
And that adding up thirteen rows of numbers already on disk produced a split — seven closed and six open — and a correction to the test that was proposed for them, which had the wrong number in it.
What the picture at the top shows
Thirteen rows, one per excluded cut, stacked by the lag each kept. Each row has one cell per chain of that lag, and a filled cell is a chain displaced ten degrees or more from the level the rest sit at.
The number on the right is the sum of that row’s displacements, folded into half a turn either way. The rows near the top have small sums and the rows near the bottom have large ones, and the ordering by lag is why.
The one line
The exchange sets aside thirteen of the census’s thirty wrecked cuts, not eleven: two of them carry exactly two exceptional chains displaced the same way, which is a pair only in the sense of a count.
Added up — one addition each, on numbers already on disk — seven of the thirteen close to within ten and a half degrees and six sit sixteen and a half to a hundred and seventy-four degrees away.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- The window nobody moved — both name ablation, claim testing, damage profile, honest limits, measurement error, residue class
- A list that was a rounding — both name claim testing, honest limits, measurement error, negative result, selection effect
- A spread that grows with its window — both name claim testing, damage profile, honest limits, measurement error, residue class
- A window nobody aligned — both name ablation, claim testing, honest limits, negative result, selection effect
- An onset at the end of the run — both name ablation, claim testing, honest limits, negative result, selection effect
- Four accounts of one angle — both name ablation, claim testing, honest limits, measurement error, negative result
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationBalanced pairCensus designClaim testingDamage profileExceptional chainExchangeHonest limitsMeasurement errorNegative resultResidue classSelection effect