The third band, cut whole
Worth reading first: Where a handover sits · The organ that was taken away.
A band is the stretch of rise around a rung’s handover over which the counted pair holds and the settled divergence does not move. Cutting one at every rise it holds asks one question: does the family a wrecking cut leaves standing change anywhere inside it?
Two bands have been cut whole and they answered differently. The golden 8/13 band changes its answer nineteen times; the Lucas 7/11 band does not change it once. That is a difference between two things, and a difference between two things has as many explanations as anyone cares to write down.
The round that found the second answer said so plainly and stopped there, because two bands cannot choose between four accounts. Every account that names something the two bands differ in fits both of them perfectly, and there are more such things than there are bands.
What a third band is for
Four accounts were written down before this one was cut, and each of them names something the two bands differ in.
The branch they sit on: one is golden and one is Lucas. The counted pair: 8/13 against 7/11, so the larger member differs. The number of wrecking offsets: six against five. And how much of its rung the band spans: 72 per cent against 48.
Two bands cannot separate four accounts, because every one of them puts the two bands on opposite sides. A third band can, and only if it is chosen to break the pattern.
Why the golden 5/8
It is the only band on the ladder that separates the branch from everything else. It sits on the golden branch with the speckled band, so an account that names the branch predicts it changes; it carries a smaller pair, fewer offsets and a narrower span than either, so the other three accounts predict it does not.
That is a design with a prediction attached rather than a survey. Whichever way it comes out, three of the four accounts lose — and which three depends on the answer, so the design cannot fail to be informative in the way a confirmation can.
It is also the cheapest of the three remaining bands. At 112 rises and three wrecking offsets it needs 1,120 cut stems, against 1,890 for the band already done and 1,612 for the other. The two bands at the coarse end of the ladder are cheaper still and are worth nothing here, because nothing behind the front wrecks there and a band with no wrecked cut has no survivor to follow.
The sweep
One hundred and twelve rises, every offset the front reaches at each of them, and a control at every rise sharing the history below the hole. Seventeen minutes.
The band is built the way every band here is built: outwards from the handover while the counted pair holds and the settled divergence stays within a twentieth of a degree of its value there. It reaches 0.01763 at the coarse end and 0.01413 at the fine, and the handover at 0.01558 sits 56 per cent of the way along it.
The rises are spaced by a ratio rather than by a step. Two parts in a thousand between one rise and the next, which is the same argument the ladder itself is swept with: a fixed step that is one per cent of the rise at one end of the ladder is half a per cent at the other, and a band swept that way is a band sampled twice as finely at one end as at the other.
The offsets tried at each rise are the ones the front reaches, which on this band is three — offsets 3, 4 and 5. Past the front every cut recovers and a recovered stem has no survivor to report, so there is nothing to gain by cutting further back.
It changes
Twice. Offset 5 keeps the family 20 at two of the rises it wrecks at, and keeps 5 at every other.
So the branch account is the one left standing. Both golden bands change the family their cuts keep somewhere inside them and the Lucas band does not, and the three accounts that name the pair, the offsets or the span each put this band on the wrong side.
The arithmetic is worth doing out loud, because three of four eliminated is the kind of sentence that sounds stronger than it is. The pair account says a band changes when the larger of its counted numbers is 11 or more: it is right on the 8/13, wrong on the 7/11 and wrong here. The offsets account says a band changes when five or more of its offsets wreck: same three verdicts. The span account says a band changes when it covers 45 per cent of its rung or more: same again. All three fail on the same two bands, because all three order the bands the same way and the answer does not.
Two against nineteen
The support is thin and saying so is most of the work. Nineteen changes across three offsets is a transition region; two changes at one offset is two rises.
What replicates is that a change happens, not the shape it made on the first band. There are no islands here, no alternation to fit a period to, and nothing that would have prompted the question that band raised.
A reader who took the first band’s picture as what a golden band looks like would be wrong about this one in every particular except the sign. Thirteen islands and nineteen changes across three offsets is a texture; two changes at one offset is two rises, and two rises support no statement about texture at all.
The honest form of the finding is therefore conditional. Whether a golden band’s cuts ever change what they keep looks like a property of the branch, on three bands. How much they change looks like a property of the band, on the same three, and the two golden bands differ by a factor of ten in it.
What three bands can and cannot do
They can eliminate. Three accounts are now wrong on a band each, and an account wrong on a band cut at every rise it holds is wrong for good rather than pending a finer sweep.
They cannot confirm. One account being right on three bands is one account being right three times, and the branch is confounded with everything else a branch decides: its seed angle, its sequence, the divergence its stems settle to. Three golden bands and three Lucas ones would say more than a fourth of either.
The cheapest thing that would say more is the Lucas 4/7 band at 86 rises, because it is the second Lucas band. If it changes, the branch account goes the way of the other three.
The two ends were right
The coarse design cuts nine rises and reports what each end of the band keeps. On this band both ends keep 5, which is what nine rises said, and the full sweep confirms it at every rise outside the two.
That is worth recording because it is the half of the coarse design that has never been wrong. What a sample of a band gets right is the value at its ends; what it gets wrong is anything narrower than its own step.
The wrecking set, for the third time
The one result that has replicated on every band cut whole: which offsets wreck is a function of the rise, not of the lattice.
Here it is more thorough than anywhere. Offset 3 wrecks at 17 of the 112 rises in seven separate stretches; offset 5 at 28 in eleven; and offset 4, which wrecks at 111 of 112, has a gap one rise wide in the middle of it.
So not one of this band’s three offsets wrecks everywhere. The golden 8/13 band has one that does and the Lucas 7/11 has three.
Which makes a census a sample of a rise
The consequence is the same one the second band stated and it is sharper here. A census taken at one rise of this band cuts three offsets; a census taken at a rise fourteen steps away cuts one. Neither is wrong and they are censuses of different sizes.
Every claim in the ablation thread quantified over the offsets that wreck is therefore quantified over a set that depends on a number nobody chose deliberately. The claims survive because they are about what a cut keeps rather than about how many cut, and the distinction had not been forced until a band was cut whole.
It also puts a boundary on a result from the same thread. The offset mostly decides which family survives, scored over the census, and that score is over the offsets that happened to wreck at the ten rises the census holds. On a band where an offset wrecks at 17 rises of 112, the offset is a property of a rise as much as of a lattice — and a rule indexed by it is being asked to work on a quantity that is only sometimes defined.
The band’s own geometry
Nothing about the lattice moves across the band, which is what makes the sweep a sweep of one thing. The counted pair is 5/8 at every rise. The settled divergence moves by 0.047 degrees end to end, which is a fifth of one step of the azimuth grid.
What does move is the ordering of the two contact steps, and that is what a band is built around: the 5-hop is shorter at the coarse end and the 8-hop at the fine end, crossing between 0.01564 and 0.01561.
The span is a measurement and not a setting
This band spans 23 per cent of its rung against the golden 8/13’s 72 and the Lucas 7/11’s 48. That is not a choice: a band is grown until the divergence moves, so its extent measures how flat the divergence is at that rung’s handover.
A narrow band is a rung whose divergence is steep there. The prediction attached to that — that band width falls as the slope rises — is tested on all six bands and this one sits where it should.
So the span account being wrong here is not an accident of choosing a narrow band. It is the account being wrong. If the span had been chosen — if a band’s extent were a setting rather than a measurement — then a narrow band changing its answer would mean nothing, because the band could have been made wider and the extra rises might have held the changes. It cannot be. The band ends where the divergence starts moving, and past that the lattice being cut is a different lattice.
What the two changes are worth on their own
Almost nothing as evidence about transition regions, and something as evidence about survivors.
The family the cuts choose between here is 5 and 20, and 20 is not a member of the counted pair. That is the second band to keep a family off its own pair, and the second one does not look like the first: the golden 8/13 chose between 8 and 4, which is half of a counted number, and this one chooses a multiple of one.
Where the changes sit
Both are above the handover, at 0.01625 and 0.01605, on the coarse side of it. Every change the golden 8/13 band showed sits below its handover, seven to fifty-seven rises down from it.
That is one more thing this band does not replicate, and with two changes it is not evidence of anything. It is recorded because a later band with changes above its handover would make it two of three, and nobody would go back to look.
The two rises are twenty apart in the band’s own indexing and five apart in the sequence of rises where offset 5 wrecks at all, which is the only sequence in which they are adjacent. Between them the offset recovers five times, so whatever holds the family at 20 is not holding the cut.
The claim the thread rests on
That the rise where the two contact steps change places is not the rise where the survivor changes. Nineteen located changes on one band and none on another had never put a change at a handover.
Here the flag fires for the first time, and it fires on a change that is not located. The return from 20 to 5 is bracketed between two rises 108 steps of the grid apart, because offset 5 does not wreck at any rise between them — and the handover is inside that bracket because nearly everything is.
At the handover rise itself the only cut that wrecks is offset 4, which keeps 5 above and below. So this band cannot test the claim at its own handover, and saying so is the result.
What was cut and what it cost
Three bands are now cut whole: 126 rises, 124 and 112, for 1,890, 1,612 and 1,120 cut stems. Three of the ladder’s six bands remain, and the two at the coarse end wreck nothing at all, so the real remainder is one.
The Lucas 4/7 band is that one, and it is the test the branch account most needs. Eighty-six rises and about half an hour.
What the coarse design would have reported
Ten of this band’s rises, at a step of fourteen, and both changes missed. That is not a surprise once the changes are known — a feature one rise wide is invisible to a step of fourteen about thirteen times in fourteen — but it is the first time the coarse design has been wrong about whether rather than about how many.
Its record was the argument for reading a negative from it. On the golden 8/13 it found five changes of nineteen and on the Lucas 7/11 it found none of none, so it had been right twice about the only question anybody asked of it. It is now right twice in three, and what that costs is a separate matter because it is the design six uncut bands would otherwise be measured with.
The control at every rise
Each rise is cut with a control beside it: the same stem grown to the same length with no organ removed. That is what makes a displacement a displacement rather than a divergence, and it is why the sweep costs 1,232 stems rather than 1,120.
The control also carries the check that the band is one lattice. Its counted pair is read at every rise and is 5/8 at every rise; its settled divergence is read at every rise and moves by less than a fifth of one azimuth step. A band where either moved would be a band whose ends are two different objects, and the sweep would be comparing them rather than sweeping one.
The shape of the answer
A round that cuts a band to test three accounts and eliminates three of them has done what it set out to do, and the account left standing is the one with the least behind it.
Nothing about a branch explains why a cut on it would change what it keeps. The branch is a seed angle and a sequence; the survivor is a contact family of a lattice; the connection, if there is one, is not in any file here. What the third band buys is the elimination of three explanations that could have been stated in one sentence each, and a fourth that cannot be.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- The offsets that never change — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, negative result, parastichy pair, resolution, rung, sampling
- One rise below the census — both name ablation, census design, claim testing, contact family, parastichy pair, replication, rung, sampling
- The side the census sat on — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, negative result, parastichy pair, rung, sampling
- Two rises far apart — both name ablation, claim testing, contact family, handover, honest limits, negative result, resolution, rung
- When nine rises are enough — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, negative result, resolution, rung, sampling
- A family that is a multiple — both name ablation, claim testing, contact family, honest limits, negative result, parastichy pair, resolution
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationCensus designClaim testingContact familyHandoverHonest limitsNegative resultParastichy pairReplicationResolutionRungSampling