Three offsets, three crossings
Worth reading first: Where a handover sits · The organ that was taken away · Counting the spirals.
The band design exists to separate one thing from everything else. Across a band the counted pair holds and the settled divergence stays flat, and the quantity that moves is which of the two contact steps is shorter — the step ordering. If the survivor of a cut changed where the ordering does, the ordering would be deciding it.
At nine rises a band it does not, and at every rise of the widest band it still does not. Nineteen changes of survivor and not one at the handover.
Which is the claim, strengthened
The nine-rise reading had five changes to make this statement about. This one has nineteen, over a hundred and twenty-six rises rather than ten, and the nearest change to the handover is eight rises away.
Eight rises at two parts in a thousand is 1.6 per cent in the rise. That is not adjacent and it is not far: it is comfortably outside anything the sweep’s own resolution could confuse.
The strengthening matters because the earlier version of the claim rested on a design that could not have seen a change at the handover if one had been hiding between two sampled rises. The finer sweep removes that: there are twelve rises either side of the crossing and all twenty-four of them give the same answer at every offset.
And three crossings, not one
The three offsets that change do not change together. Offset 7 crosses from the 8 family to the 4 family at a rise of 0.00595, offset 6 at 0.00582 and offset 8 at 0.00571.
Those are eight, nineteen and twenty-nine rises below the handover at 0.00605. The band does not have a boundary; it has three, one per offset, spread over twenty-one rises.
Which the sample could not have said
The nine-rise design bracketed all three between the same pair of sampled rises or the pair next to it, and reported them as “two to four sweep steps below the crossing”. One of its steps is sixteen rises, so the three crossings — twenty-one rises apart — fit inside two of its steps.
A design whose step is sixteen cannot report three positions twenty-one apart as three positions. It reports them as one region.
What a change of survivor means
A stem with an organ removed either recovers — returning to its control’s divergence and counted pair — or it does not, and a stem that does not keeps exactly one lag rigid: the angle from an organ to the one that many places above it is unchanged from the control, organ by organ, while every other lag moves. That lag is the survivor, and on this band it is 8 or 4 and never anything else.
So a crossing is a rise at which cutting the same organ from a stem grown at a slightly smaller rise leaves a different family standing. Nothing about the cut changes, nothing about the counted pair changes, and the divergence moves by less than the width of the grid the azimuths sit on.
The order they cross in
Coarse to fine: 7, then 6, then 8. That is not the numerical order of the offsets and it is not their distance from the front.
Nothing here accounts for it. It is three numbers and any ordering of three numbers is one of six, so it would be foolish to make anything of the sequence — but the fact that they are separated at all is the finding, and it was not visible before. The census’s own account of which family survives turns on the offset and not on the lattice, so three offsets behaving separately is what that account would predict and one boundary would have been the awkward result.
What a crossing is here
The first rise, reading from coarse to fine, at which the offset’s answer changes and does not change back for the rest of the band. Islands after it are counted as islands rather than as further crossings, which is a decision and is stated because it has to be.
Under the other convention — every transition is a crossing — there are nineteen rather than three, thirteen of them at offset 8, and no useful sentence can be written. The three are the transitions that separate the band’s two halves at each offset.
A convention that has to be stated is a convention doing work, and this one is doing a lot: it turns a ragged transition into a number. The picture at the head of this essay is the version with no convention applied, and a reader who prefers it should take it as the primary reading and these three rises as a summary of it.
Twenty-one rises is five per cent of the rise
Worth converting, because rises are the sweep’s unit and not the band’s. The three crossings span 0.00595 to 0.00571, which is 4.2 per cent in the rise, on a band spanning 28 per cent.
So the crossings occupy about a seventh of the band, sitting a fifth of the way down it. They are not spread through it and they are not at a point.
Which is a shape nobody predicted
The design’s prediction was a constant: the survivor is the same everywhere on the band. Its refutation at nine rises was a scatter of changes with no structure. At full resolution it is a band with a clean coarse half, a clean fine half, and a transition occupying about a seventh of it in which three offsets cross at three rises and the answer is speckled.
That is more structure than “the survivor sometimes changes” and less than “the band has a boundary”. It is the shape the sampling could not have produced.
What the handover does
Nothing to the survivor, which is the point. Nineteen changes, none at it, and the nearest eight rises away.
What it does do is sit above all three crossings. Every crossing is on the fine side of the handover, which is a weaker statement than “at” and is not nothing: if the crossings were unrelated to the handover they would be as likely above it as below. Three of three below is not evidence of much on its own — one in eight under a coin, and the three are not independent, since they are three offsets of one band and could easily be moved together by one thing.
The honest reading is therefore that the crossings sit below the handover on this band, and that a second band would say whether that is a fact about bands or about this one.
What else moves across the band
Everything the band does not hold. The rise moves by twenty-eight per cent, the two contact steps lengthen and shorten at different rates, the shorter of them changes at the handover, and the number of organs in a turn moves with the rise.
That is the honest position: a band holds two quantities still and lets a dozen move, so “something correlated with the ordering” is a list of a dozen candidates rather than a hypothesis. The band design was never a controlled experiment in the strong sense; it is a design that holds the two quantities the thread’s rival accounts turn on.
Which is a hypothesis worth stating
That the ordering does not decide the survivor, and something correlated with the ordering shifts the rise at which the survivor changes. The band was designed to test the first and it has no instrument for the second.
An instrument would be a second band on the same rung — grown around a different feature — or the same measurement on a band whose handover sits at the other end. Both are available and neither has been run.
The second is the cheaper and the sharper. Handovers sit at different fractions of their rungs, from five per cent to forty, so a band whose handover is near its rung’s fine end would put the crossings above it rather than below — or would not, which would be the more interesting outcome.
What is unchanged from the earlier reading
The claim the thread rests on: the two contact steps changing places does not change which family a cut leaves standing. That was established on a hundred and fourteen cuts across four bands and it is established here on 1,890 cut stems on one.
The finer sweep is not an independent confirmation — it is the same band, more finely — but it removes the one way the earlier reading could have been wrong by luck: that a change sat between two sampled rises straddling the handover and was invisible.
What is changed
Every sentence about where inside a band something happens. The previous round’s “two to four sweep steps below the crossing” was a position quoted in a sample’s own steps, and the corrected figure is eight to fifty-eight rises across the nineteen changes and eight, nineteen and twenty-nine for the three crossings.
That correction is small in consequence and general in kind. A sample can locate a feature no better than its own step, and a step reported as a unit reads like a measurement.
The three offsets are consecutive
6, 7 and 8, with 4, 5 and 9 never changing at all. The three that move are adjacent and they sit around the band’s larger counted number, which is 13, at a distance of five, six and seven organs below it.
Whether that is meaningful is not decidable here. Three consecutive offsets out of six is not a strong pattern and the six are themselves consecutive, so any three of them that move together would be adjacent about half the time. The census has a standing result that the offset mostly decides the survivor, and three adjacent offsets behaving alike is consistent with it and adds nothing to it.
The check that would sharpen it
The Lucas 7/11 band, at 124 rises, is nearly as wide as this one and is on the other branch. If its changing offsets also cross at separate rises below its handover, the shape is a property of bands. If they cross together, or at the handover, this band is unusual.
Two hours of runs, and it is the single most informative thing that could be added to this thread. It is not in this round, and it goes into the record as an outstanding check with its cost attached.
Why three crossings is more useful than one
A single boundary would have been a cleaner result and a less informative one. If all three offsets crossed at one rise, the natural reading would be that something about the lattice changes there and every cut feels it — and the next question would be what, with no way to narrow it.
Three separate crossings say the change is not a property of the lattice alone. It depends on which organ was removed as well, and that halves the space of candidate accounts at a stroke: whatever moves the crossing has to be something a cut’s offset can interact with, which rules out every quantity that is a function of the rise alone.
What a reader should carry
That the band’s central claim survives at fourteen times the resolution, and that everything else the thread has said about a band’s interior was said at a resolution of one rise in sixteen.
And that “the survivor changes somewhere below the handover” is now three numbers rather than one region, which is the difference between a description and a measurement — the same difference a count taken at one radius has to be careful about at the other end of this site.
Three crossings and thirteen islands
The two readings belong together. Below each offset’s crossing there is a stretch in which the coarse family comes back — thirteen such returns across the three offsets, one to three rises wide each, with no period in them.
So a crossing is the point after which the fine family wins on balance, not the point after which it wins outright. Stating the crossings as three sharp rises is a simplification the essay makes deliberately and the picture does not: read the band image and the three transitions are visibly ragged rather than clean.
What the design would look like rebuilt
Grow a band, cut every rise of it, and report three things per offset: whether it wrecks, which family it keeps, and where its crossing is. That is what this sweep does and it is not what the band design does, which reports one family per band and a list of exceptions.
Rebuilding it that way costs sixty-seven minutes a band and would replace six numbers with about twenty. Whether that is worth two hours across the remaining five bands is a judgement, and the argument for it is that four of the six currently report no change at all — a reading that a sixteen-rise step could produce from a band with a transition region narrower than sixteen rises.
The one line
Cut at every one of its 126 rises, the widest band on the ladder changes its surviving family nineteen times and not once at the handover, with the nearest change eight rises away.
The three offsets that change cross at three different rises — eight, nineteen and twenty-nine rises below the handover — which a design stepping sixteen rises at a time reported as one region two to four steps below the crossing.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- Six lattices were not enough — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, lattice offset, matched design, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung, sampling, underdetermination
- One offset, two answers — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, lattice offset, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rigid hop, rise, rung, underdetermination
- The exception was already labelled — both name ablation, claim testing, control, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, matched design, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung
- The side the census sat on — both name ablation, claim testing, control, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung, sampling, underdetermination
- One rung, two answers — both name ablation, control, honest limits, lattice offset, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rigid hop, rise, rung, underdetermination
- The family that lost a member — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, lattice offset, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rigid hop, rung, underdetermination
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationClaim testingControlHandoverHonest limitsLattice offsetMatched designMeasurementNegative resultParastichy pairResolutionRigid hopRiseRungSamplingUnderdetermination