The wrecking set moves again
Worth reading first: Where a handover sits · The organ that was taken away · Counting the spirals.
The ablation census is a list of lattices, each cut at every offset out to the front and two past it, and the wrecked cuts are the rows every result in this thread is quantified over. The set of wrecked cuts is therefore the denominator of a great deal of arithmetic.
It was taken to be a property of the lattice. It is not: it is a property of the lattice and the rise, and both bands cut whole say so.
What a wrecked cut is
Remove one organ from a grown stem, continue the run, and compare it against a control that shares the history below the hole. Either the run recovers — the organs placed after the hole return to the arrangement the control has — or it does not, and the stem carries a permanent displacement.
The second is a wreck. Which offsets produce one is the first thing the census measures and the thing everything else is conditioned on — the surviving family, the period the damage falls into, the exchange and its size are all read off wrecked cuts and off nothing else.
Where the assumption came from
It came from the census’s own shape. Ten lattices, each cut at every offset, each producing a list of wrecking offsets — and a list attached to a lattice reads like a property of it. The same reading gave the collection its rule for which family a cut leaves standing, which is stated over the offset and the counted pair and scored on the same rows.
Nothing in the design ever said the list would be stable in the rise, because the design never varied the rise while holding everything else. Each of the census’s ten lattices sits at its own rise on its own rung, so a difference between two of them is a difference in several things at once.
What a band gives that the census does not
A band is a hundred-odd lattices that differ in the rise and in nothing else that has been left free. The counted pair is held, the settled divergence is held to a twentieth of a degree, and the rise moves by two parts in a thousand a step.
So a band is the experiment the census could not run. Anything that changes across it changes because of the rise, and the wrecking set changes across both of them.
That is the same argument the band around a handover was built on, applied to a quantity the band was not built to test. A design that holds two things and moves a third can be read for any fourth thing that happens to be recorded.
The first band’s reading
On the golden 8/13 band, six offsets wreck somewhere and none of them wrecks everywhere in the same way. Offset 7 wrecks at all 126 rises, offset 8 at 123, offset 6 at 110, offset 4 at 98, offset 9 at 81 and offset 5 at only 22 of them.
The set changes on 23 of that band’s 125 steps. So two censuses taken at two rises of one band, with the same pair and the same divergence, are censuses of different sizes about one in five times.
Offset 5 is the extreme case there: it has no answer at 104 of the band’s 126 rises and a clean one at the other 22. A census that happened to sit at one of those 22 would report a five-offset lattice where a census two rises away reports four.
The second band’s, which is stronger
On the Lucas 7/11 band, five offsets wreck. Offsets 5, 6 and 7 wreck at all 124 rises. Offset 8 wrecks at 88 of them in one run that begins 36 rises down from the coarse end. And offset 4 wrecks at 27 of the 124, in five separate stretches of 11, 2, 1, 6 and 7 rises, with gaps of 2, 52, 20, 2 and 21 between them.
Five stretches is more than anything on the golden band, where no offset’s wrecking broke into more than three. So the effect replicates and is larger on the second case than on the first, which is the direction a replication least often goes.
An offset that comes and goes
Offset 4 is worth looking at on its own. It wrecks for eleven consecutive rises, then recovers for two, then wrecks for two, then recovers for fifty-two, then wrecks once, then recovers for twenty, then wrecks for six, recovers for two, wrecks for seven, and recovers for the last twenty-one.
Read as a list of numbers that is not obviously anything. Read as a picture it is a row that is mostly empty with four clumps in it, and the clumps are not evenly spaced and do not fit a period any more than the other band’s islands do.
Which is the same shape as the other finding
That is worth pausing on. The golden band’s changes of surviving family are short islands with uneven gaps that fit no period, and the Lucas band’s wrecking of offset 4 is short stretches with uneven gaps that fit no period.
The two are different quantities on different bands and they have the same texture. Whether that is a fact or a coincidence is not something two rows can say, and it is the kind of thing worth writing down so that a third band can be asked about it.
Why this matters to the arithmetic
Nearly every claim in the ablation thread is of the form at every offset that wrecks, and the set that quantifies over is decided by the rise. So two statements made at two rises are statements about different sets.
That is not a defect in any particular claim. It is a caveat that has to travel with all of them, and the reason to state it here is that nothing had drawn the set moving before the bands were cut whole.
What it does to the census’s size
The census holds thirty wrecked cuts across ten lattices. Had those ten lattices been placed a few parts in a thousand away in the rise, it would hold a different number.
How different is now measurable rather than guessable. On the golden band the number of wrecking offsets ranges from three to six across its rises; on the Lucas band from three to five. So a census of ten lattices could plausibly have come back with twenty-four rows or with thirty-six.
And what it does not do
It does not make the census’s results unstable. The exchange’s orientation is right on every row it has; the correction is right on every row; the periodicity classification splits the rows the same way it did.
Those are claims about the rows that are there, and adding or removing rows of the same kind does not threaten them. What moves is the denominator of any claim that counts rows, and this thread has been careful to state such claims as counts rather than as shares for other reasons.
The one place it bites is the count of rows the exchange is quantified over, which is seventeen and is quoted as a probability under a coin. That probability is right for the rows measured and it is not a probability about the ladder.
Where the set changes, against where anything else does
The handover is the one rise a band is built around, and it is not where the wrecking set changes. On the golden band the 23 changes are spread across the whole width; on the Lucas band offset 8 begins wrecking 36 rises from the coarse end and offset 4’s stretches are scattered.
So this is a third quantity that moves across a band without paying any attention to the crossing the band is centred on. The first two were the settled divergence, which is held by construction, and the family kept, which moves on one band and not the other.
A recovery is not a missing measurement
The distinction the picture depends on is between a cut that recovers and a cut that was never made. The sweep tries every offset from one out to the front and two past it at every rise, so nothing inside a band is untried.
That matters because a pale cell reads as absence, and absence is the failure mode this collection keeps finding in its own instruments. Here it is a measured state: the cut was made, the run was continued, and it came back to the control.
The front is not the boundary either
The obvious account of an offset that comes and goes would be that it sits near the edge of the front — the depth past which nothing wrecks — and that the edge moves with the rise.
Offset 4 is not near that edge. On a 7/11 lattice the front runs deeper than four, and the offsets past the front on this band are 9 and above, which are never tried because nothing behind the front wrecks. So the offset that flickers is an interior one, not a boundary one.
What a flickering offset might be
No account is offered here and it is worth saying why. A cut wrecks when the organs placed after the hole settle into an arrangement the control does not reach, and whether they do depends on the whole geometry of the neighbourhood the next organ is placed against — a neighbourhood whose extent is itself a measurement rather than a setting.
Two rises two parts in a thousand apart give neighbourhoods that differ by a fraction of a degree in every hop. That such a difference can flip a binary outcome is not surprising; that it flips it in clumps rather than at a boundary is the part with no account.
The obvious next measurement
The thing to do is to ask whether the flicker is real at a finer step. This sweep steps by two parts in a thousand; a sweep of one of offset 4’s short recoveries at a tenth of that would say whether the boundary between wrecking and recovering is sharp or whether the outcome genuinely alternates.
That is about forty stems and ten minutes for one of the gaps. It has not been done and it is the cheapest open question this reading leaves.
What the golden band says about the same question
There is one piece of evidence already. On the golden band offset 5 wrecks at 22 of 126 rises, in a dozen short stretches — the same texture as offset 4 here, at a different offset on a different branch.
So whatever this is, it happens to the offset that wrecks least often on each band. That is a pattern over two cases and it is stated as such.
Reading a census row honestly
The practical consequence is a sentence for anybody reading the census. A row that says this lattice wrecks at offsets 4, 6, 7 and 8 is a statement about that lattice at that rise, and a lattice a few parts in a thousand away may wreck at three offsets or at six.
One rise per rung is a sample was written about a different quantity and it applies here unchanged. The census is a sample of the ladder in every column, not only in the ones it was designed to sample.
The same caution has now been earned three times in this collection by three different instruments: a reading window that decided a result, a run length that moved nineteen onsets, and a rise that decides which cuts there are to read at all.
What replicates, precisely
The claim that replicates is narrow and worth stating in its narrow form: the set of offsets at which a single removal wrecks a stem is not constant along a band. It changes on 23 of the golden band’s 125 steps and on the Lucas band it breaks one offset’s wrecking into five stretches.
What does not replicate is the family the surviving cuts keep, which changes on one band and not the other. The two were found in the same table and they are not one finding.
Two readings of one table
The band sweep produces one table and this thread has now read it twice. The first reading asks which family a wrecked cut keeps, and the second asks which cuts wreck at all. They use different cells: the first uses only the filled ones, the second uses the pattern of filled against pale.
Those are close to independent questions and they came out differently. The first is uniform on one band and speckled on the other; the second moves on both. Reading one table twice is cheap and it is the thing most likely to be skipped once the table has answered the question it was built for.
There is a third reading available and not taken here: the order in which offsets stop wrecking as the rise falls, which is a statement about the front rather than about any one offset.
What a stable set would have looked like
It is worth naming the alternative that did not happen, because a negative result needs one. A wrecking set that were a property of the lattice would give a picture with five solid rows and five empty ones — every offset either wrecking at every rise or at none.
Nothing on either band looks like that. Every band has at least one offset that wrecks at some rises and not others, and on the Lucas band three of five rows are solid and two are not.
Why the effect is bigger on the finer band
One observation with no account attached. The Lucas band sits at rises around 0.008 and the golden band around 0.0058, so the two are not far apart; but the Lucas band’s offsets run to 8 and the golden band’s to 9, and the finer of the two has the smaller front.
What is measured is that the flickering happens at the offset that wrecks least on each band, and that the Lucas band’s flickering offset flickers more. Whether that is about the branch, the pair or the rise is three questions the two bands cannot separate.
What a reader should carry
That whether a cut wrecks is decided by the rise as well as by the offset, and that a band is what shows it because a band moves the rise and nothing else.
And that this is the half of the earlier finding that survived being asked twice. The speckle in the surviving family was one band’s; the movement in the wrecking set is both bands’, and larger on the second.
What the picture at the top shows
Five rows and 124 columns. Three rows are solid: those offsets wreck at every rise of the band. One row begins a third of the way in and is solid after that.
And one row is mostly empty with four clumps in it, separated by gaps of two, fifty-two, twenty and two rises. That row is offset 4, it wrecks at 27 of the band’s 124 rises, and it is the strongest instance of this effect anywhere in the collection.
The one line
Which offsets wreck a stem is a property of the lattice and the rise: the set changes on 23 of the golden band’s 125 steps, and on the Lucas band one offset’s wrecking is broken into five stretches with gaps of 2, 52, 20, 2 and 21 rises.
So every claim of the form at every offset that wrecks is quantified over a set the rise decides, and two censuses taken a few parts in a thousand apart are censuses of different sizes.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- One rise below the census — both name ablation, census design, claim testing, contact family, lattice offset, replication, rise, rung, sampling
- Every rise of a band — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, rise, rung, sampling
- The offsets that never change — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, rise, rung, sampling
- The side the census sat on — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, rise, rung, sampling
- Three offsets, three crossings — both name ablation, claim testing, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, rise, rung, sampling
- Six lattices were not enough — both name ablation, claim testing, honest limits, lattice offset, rise, rung, sampling
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationCensus designClaim testingContact familyHandoverHonest limitsLattice offsetRecoveryReplicationRiseRungSampling