Concept

Residual — where it appears

What is left over after a fitted or predicted part is subtracted. A residual that survives every control is a finding; one that turns out to be the width of the window it was measured through is an artefact, and this collection has produced both.

Named by 21 essays across 6 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

A logarithmic spiral growing by 3.20× per turn. Fitting log r against angle on the drawn points returns 3.2000, and the model's worst residual is 9e-16 in log r.

Growth as a rule

A logarithmic spiral is not a shape somebody admired. It is what a thing grows into when it adds material at its opening without changing shape, its one parameter is how much it grows per turn, and that parameter can be recovered from any drawn curve to the last digit.

shells · Spiral
The exponent fitted from the junctions, rather than assumed. Sweeping k and asking where r₀ᵏ = Σ rᵢᵏ holds best gives 3.000 — Murray's 3, recovered rather than imposed.

Fitting the exponent

Assuming the exponent is three and reporting the error says how far the data is from that assumption. Fitting the exponent and reporting what it comes out as says what the network is doing — and an estimator has to be shown returning something other than three, or it is not a fit.

branching · Exponent
Six stems built, forgotten and recovered. Each row is a lattice built from a divergence and a rise, counted by machinery shown only the coordinates, and reconstructed from the counts and the two hop lengths. The worst error in the recovered angle is 3.0e-13°.

Two numbers out of the points

A seed head's divergence angle can be recovered from its spiral counts only to within an interval, because a range of angles gives the same counts. On a stem the counts come with lengths attached, two measurements pin two unknowns, and the lattice comes back to the last digit it was built with.

cylinder · Cylinder recovery
The boundary located at 481 expansions, against D = 1/W. 481 expansions log-spaced across the range, each boundary found by bisecting the two drawn circles to two hundred steps rather than read off a grid. The hyperbola D = 1/W lies on the located curve to 2.220e-16 over the whole of it — the last bit of a double — so the textbook line is the boundary and not an approximation of it. The closed form and the bisection agree to 2.81e-15 at worst over all 3,200 located boundaries, which is what makes a residual of zero a reading.

The line was already exact

The boundary between shells whose whorls run into one another and shells whose whorls run free is quoted everywhere as D = 1/W, and a survey designed to measure how far off it sits found that it is not off at all. Located by bisecting the drawn circles at 481 expansions, the residual is 2.2 × 10⁻¹⁶ — the last bit a double holds, over the whole range.

shells · Morphospace
A tree built at an exponent of 3, measured band by band. Six bands of daughter ratio, 300 junctions in each, all from trees built at an exponent of exactly 3 with the same 2% measurement error. The median implied exponent falls from 3.00 at an even fork to 1.58 at a twig, and the share of junctions that have any exponent at all falls from 100% to 53% over the same range. The rule across the top is a single fit over 200 junctions spanning the whole range: 2.85. A mixed sample is safe because least squares already weights by leverage — 42% of it sits in the most symmetric band and 0.06% in the twigs. The sample that is not safe is the one a person can reach.

The band decides the answer

A fit over a whole tree's junctions returns the exponent the tree was built at, even though most of its junctions are from bands that on their own return 1.6. Least squares is already weighting by leverage. The dangerous sample is not the mixed one — it is the one a person can reach.

branching · Exponent
What a quarter-radius centre error costs a 3.2× spiral, against what the collection publishes. Root-mean-square error in the recovered growth factor when the assumed centre is displaced by a quarter of the innermost whorl's radius, against how much arc is measured. It is 4.56 per cent at two turns, 2.52 per cent at two and a half, 1.91 per cent at three and 1.34 per cent at three and a half. It first falls under one per cent at 4.25 turns — and at 4.25 turns at all six of the growth factors surveyed, so the span rather than the factor is what decides it.

What the centre costs

The fit that recovers a shell's growth factor needs a centre, and no shell has one marked. Displacing it by a quarter of the innermost whorl's radius moves the answer by 4.56 per cent at two turns, which is about five times the figure published earlier.

shells · Spiral fit
Every assumed centre from 0.01 to 500 innermost radii, at 19 spans, against a spiral drawn at 3.2. One row per span of arc, one cell per assumed displacement on a logarithmic grid from 0.01 to 500 innermost radii, shaded by the highest growth factor any of 180 directions returns there. A displaced centre reaches 6.854 at every span up to 1.15 turns and at no span from 1.2 upward, so the boundary is a span rather than a displacement. The dashed rule is the two-turn span floor, and the cheapest golden fit anywhere leaves a residual of 0.163 against a threshold of 0.15 — so a golden reading is refused twice over.

How far a centre must move

Four hundred and eighty-two thousand assumed centres, at nineteen spans and a hundred and eighty directions each, asked whether a spiral drawn at 3.2 can be made to read as the golden 6.854. It can, at every span up to 1.15 turns and at none from 1.2 upward, and every centre that manages it is refused twice over.

shells · Spiral fit
The fit pointed at twelve curves, and the residual each one leaves. Every curve is handed to the same recovery from its own true centre with no noise anywhere, and every one of them returns a growth factor. A circle comes back at exactly 1.0000 with a residual of zero, and so does every ellipse tried, whatever its aspect. An Archimedean spiral read from its second turn comes back at 1.306 with a residual of 0.090 and is accepted; it is refused only when the arc includes its own first turn, at 0.1976. Across every growth factor and span the fit was tested at, the band inverts — a genuine spiral reaches 0.670 while archimedes-4 sits at 0.035 — so no threshold separates them.

The residual is not the test

The fit that recovers a growth factor also hands back a residual, and that residual has been read as what separates a genuine logarithmic spiral from something that merely looks like one. Pointed at twelve curves it fits a circle exactly, accepts an Archimedean spiral, and refuses a golden one that is right to three decimal places.

shells · Spiral fit
The step floor derived, against the step floor measured — exact in 12 of 12, with 3.2 over 3.5 turns marked. One step of the dividers subtends half a turn at the inner end when it reaches the square root of the growth factor less one, which puts the floor at the factor to the power of the span, less one, over that. The smallest count at which the factor actually comes back exactly is then found by bisection, and the two agree in 12 of 12 cases: 74 steps for a 3.2 spiral over three and a half turns and 521 for a golden one. The three that appear not to agree are the ones whose floor falls below the fit's own nine-point minimum, where it cannot be observed.

A measurement in steps

Walking a pair of dividers along a shell's spiral is the oldest way to measure it and the best one available once there are enough steps, because it puts the points where the curve is. Under a count that follows exactly from the geometry it inflates the answer instead, and it is the only route measured here that pushes a nautilus towards a golden spiral.

shells · Spiral fit
One exponent fitted to an organ that has 4 of them. Each dot is one step between consecutive rings, reporting 2 ln φ / ln(s′/s) — the exponent that step would have if the organ had one. They run from 1.980 to 1.697. The line is what a single fit returns, 1.891, which is their harmonic mean of 1.880 and sits below their plain average of 1.887.

What one exponent reports

Fit a single shape exponent to an organ that has four of them and it returns a real quantity — the harmonic mean of what its individual steps report. Harmonic means sit below arithmetic ones, so the fit understates, systematically, in a known direction, and invisibly.

cylinder · Fitted exponent
How far a shell growing from 2.8 to 3.6 a turn departs from the one spiral a fit gives it. The shell's logarithmic radius along its 4-turn arc, less the straight line a single growth factor fits. The fit returns 3.17490 a turn, which is the geometric mean of the two ends, 3.17490. The largest departure is 0.0836 in the logarithm against the 0.15 the collection refuses a spiral past, so the fit accepts this shell; a change that is steady in its rate leaves ln(W₁/W₀) × turns/12 = 0.0838.

One number for a shell that changes

An animal is under no obligation to grow at one rate from hatching to maturity, and the fit that recovers a shell's growth factor returns one number whatever it is given. Handed a shell whose expansion rises steadily from 2.8 to 3.6 a turn, it returns 3.17490 — the geometric mean of the two ends, exactly — with a residual it accepts. A change of sixty-four per cent over three and a half turns passes as one logarithmic spiral, and at the aperture, where contact is decided, the one number and the last whorl give opposite verdicts.

shells · Spiral fit
What the pair costs, at a rise of 0.005. Five seeded stems at each length, read at four protractor errors. With no reading error the pair needs 250 internodes — against the sixty the single parastichy number costs. At 0.25° per organ it needs 250; At 0.5° per organ it needs 400; At 0.75° per organ it needs 1100. The pattern's own scatter here is 0.70°, so the last of those is a reading error larger than the signal being read.

What the pair costs

The single parastichy number cost sixty internodes. The pair costs two hundred and fifty, and a protractor error of three quarters of a degree takes it to eleven hundred. The arithmetic that predicts the second of those is right about the shape and wrong about the scale by a consistent factor, which is recorded rather than fitted away.

wrong · Survey spec
Seven fractions with one neighbour distance and every denominator. Each member of a matched set drawn on its own stretch of the divergence axis, 0.5° either side of itself, with the nearest other rational marked. The distances are 0.3158°, 0.3158°, 0.3117°, 0.3069°, 0.3117°, 0.3077°, 0.3064° — a spread of 3.1% — while the denominators run 19, 20, 21, 23, 33, 45, 47, a factor of 2.47. That is the construction this thread needed. Every instrument for the width of a disorder dip has a free parameter set by how close the neighbour is, so a hypothesis about the neighbourhood cannot be tested by varying the neighbourhood; on this set the neighbourhood is held fixed and the arithmetic of the fraction is what varies.

Fractions with the same neighbours

Every instrument this collection has for the width of a disorder dip has a free parameter set by how close the next rational sits — which makes a hypothesis about the neighbourhood untestable with any of them. The repair is not a better instrument. It is a set of fractions whose neighbourhoods are identical and whose denominators are not, and the arithmetic supplies twenty-four of them.

tissue · Second statistic
A shell section square on and seen 30 degrees off. The same three turns of a spiral built at 3.2 per turn, drawn as a camera normal to the coiling plane sees it and as one 30 degrees away from normal does. The tilted view is the plane compressed by 0.8660 along one direction. A fit to the first returns 3.200000 with a residual of 1.8e-15; a fit to the second returns 3.19527 with a residual of 0.07763. Nothing in the second picture says it is not a shell.

A section seen from the wrong angle

A photograph of a shell section taken off the normal is the coiling plane compressed along one direction by the cosine of the angle, and nothing in the picture says so. The fit that recovers a growth factor is moved by it — half a turn seen twenty degrees off gives a band of answers 23.7 per cent wide as the span's starting point moves round the shell, centred almost exactly on the right answer, so it is a spread and not a bias. The caliper measure is exactly immune at every tilt and every aim, because a projection scales all three points on a line through the centre by the same factor. And the fit's residual names the tilt to three decimal places, which makes this the rare error a section reports about itself.

shells · Spiral fit
Hold the neighbourhood and the denominator stops mattering. The equivalent width of the disorder dip — the area of the deficit divided by its own depth — for seven fractions whose nearest neighbours sit at the same distance and whose denominators run from 19 to 47. Each is measured at a head size chosen so that all of them share one scaled unit, which makes a window in scaled units the same window in degrees and the same fraction of the way to the neighbour for every member. At a window of 25 the seven widths are 38.8, 38.8, 39.0, 39.0, 38.7, 39.0, 39.0 — a spread of ×1.010 across a factor of 2.47 in denominator. The lines separate as the window widens, to ×1.147 at 200, and when they do they order by denominator rather than by crowding. So the residual this thread carried was the window: hold it and there is nothing left that belongs to the fraction.

The residual was the window

After the depth and the q over n squared scale are taken out of a disorder dip, something looked left over and looked ordered by how crowded the fraction's neighbourhood is. Measured on fractions whose neighbourhoods are identical by construction, seven widths across a factor of two and a half in denominator agree to one per cent. There is no residual; there was a comparison made at different effective windows.

wrong · Second statistic
Five fractions with one neighbour distance and every denominator. Each member of a matched set drawn on its own stretch of the divergence axis, 0.5° either side of itself, with the nearest other rational marked. The distances are 0.3651°, 0.3529°, 0.3692°, 0.3640°, 0.3557° — a spread of 4.6% — while the denominators run 17, 20, 25, 43, 44, a factor of 2.59. That is the construction this thread needed. Every instrument for the width of a disorder dip has a free parameter set by how close the neighbour is, so a hypothesis about the neighbourhood cannot be tested by varying the neighbourhood; on this set the neighbourhood is held fixed and the arithmetic of the fraction is what varies.

Matching instead of correcting

Two rounds of work failed on one question because every instrument's free parameter was set by the thing under test. The repair was not a better instrument or a model of the bias: it was choosing what to compare so that the confound could not vary. That move is available in four other places here, and three of them have already used it without anybody naming it.

wrong · Instrument ceiling
The exceptional pair, measured in divergences. One row per wrecked cut whose profile has exactly one pair of exceptional classes, drawn at the size of that pair divided by the stem's own settled divergence. Every row sits between 0.882 and 1.076, so the two chains that came apart moved by one organ's step rather than by two or by half of one. The residual is not scatter: rows are grouped by the lag the stem kept, and every lag sits wholly above the line or wholly below it. Why a surviving 5 or 7 overshoots and a surviving 4 or 8 falls short is not answered here.

A step of one organ

The balanced pair inside a wrecked stem's period measures 88.0° to 147.2° against divergences of 99.1° to 138.0° — one organ's step, to within twelve per cent on every row. The residual is not scatter: every stem keeping a 5 or a 7 overshoots and every stem keeping a 4 or an 8 falls short.

mechanism · Damage shape
Four accounts of one angle, scored on the same 17 rows. Each bar is how far an account of the exchanged pair's size sits from the measurement, as a share of the control's divergence, averaged over the census. A step of the wrecked stem's own divergence is the obvious candidate and the worst of the four. The surviving family's own step is not the unit at all: that angle is a fifth of the exchange. A step of the control's divergence is close, and correcting it by a fifth of the surviving hop takes the worst row from 11.8 per cent to 4.0.

Four accounts of one angle

The exchanged pair in a wrecked stem is about one divergence step, and about is doing twelve per cent of work. Four candidate units were written down and scored on the same seventeen rows: the cut stem's own step, the surviving family's step, the control's step, and the control's corrected.

mechanism · Damage shape
What the exchange misses one divergence step by, against the surviving hop. Each mark is one wrecked cut. Across: the angle from an organ to the one its surviving lag places above it, on the control. Down: how much the exchanged pair's size falls short of one divergence step. The relationship is a straight line through the origin with a slope of about 0.2, and its sign is right on every row of the census — the four surviving lags give hops on both sides of zero and the residual follows each of them. The honest limit is the four: the hop hardly moves inside a lag, so the line rests on 11 distinct positions and not on 17.

A fifth of the hop

The exchanged pair misses one divergence step by up to twelve per cent, and the miss is not scatter: every row keeping a lag of 5 or 7 overshoots and every row keeping a 4 or an 8 falls short. Subtract a fifth of the surviving hop's own angle and the worst row is four per cent.

mechanism · Damage shape
Two ways of predicting how wide a band is. A band ends where the settled divergence has moved 0.05° from its value at the handover, so the width should follow from how fast the divergence changes there. Reading that rate as the rung's average slope predicts widths that are wrong by factors of 0.20 to 5.92 — wrong in both directions, so no constant rescues it. Reading it as a curvature about a stationary point gives 0.41 to 1.08, with five of the six inside a third. The difference between the two is the difference between a curve and its average, and a band is exactly where the two are least alike.

How wide a band should be

A band ends where the divergence has slid a twentieth of a degree, so its width should follow from how fast the divergence slides. Predicted from the rung's slope that is wrong by factors of 0.20 to 5.92; predicted from a stationary point it is 0.41 to 1.08, and the outlier is the rung that has no stationary point.

cylinder · Rung interior
g005 at offset 6, read against two levels. One wrecked cut's four residue classes, drawn twice. On the left the level is the median of the four class means, which falls on the class at -5.5 degrees sitting on its own; three classes are then exceptions and the row is set aside as having no balanced pair, summing to -173.6 degrees. On the right the level is the pair of classes that agree, at -138.6 degrees; two classes are then exceptions, they are adjacent and equal and opposite at 133.1 and 134.2 degrees, and the row is an exchange. The exchange table goes from 20 rows to 21.

The twenty-first row

Recomputing the level moves one row out of the set the exchange sets aside and into the exchange itself. Its hop is four times larger than any the correction was fitted over, and the correction fails on it in the one way it had never failed.

mechanism · Damage shape

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Honest limitsClaim testingNegative resultMeasurementGrowth factorLogarithmic spiralMeasurement errorSummary statisticArtefactDivergence angleIdentifiabilityResolution

All concepts