Twice the run
Worth reading first: The damage has a period · The organ that was taken away · Counting the spirals.
A wrecked stem’s displacement profile is periodic at the lag the stem kept, and it takes a while to become so. Both readings are taken over a run of three hundred organs above the hole: the levels from the last hundred and twenty of them, the onset from the first lag at which every class settles onto its level and stays there.
Twenty-five of the thirty cuts reached an onset. The range was 7 to 303 organs — and 303 out of a possible 300 is a number that ought to be checked rather than quoted. A reading that lands at the edge of its own instrument is either a coincidence or the instrument’s edge showing through, and there is no way to tell which without moving the edge.
The check
Grow every one of the thirty cuts, and its control, to six hundred organs instead of three hundred, and take the same two readings. Sixty runs, about two minutes, and the only change is the length.
The result is that all three answers move: how many cuts settle, where they settle, and which profiles are called periodic at all.
The instrument first
Everything below is a difference between two lengths, so the first thing to prove is that the length is the only difference. The profile computed here at three hundred organs agrees with the one the thread has been reading, organ by organ, on every row compared: a largest difference of zero degrees.
That is asserted rather than assumed. A second implementation would have put the difference into the implementation, and this comparison would have measured two pieces of code.
The reason a second implementation was needed at all is that the reading the thread uses is written with the run length fixed. Opening it up meant writing the profile again with the length as an argument, and a rewritten computation is exactly where a silent divergence gets in — the same hazard a stem grown at the wrong starting angle demonstrated in this thread last time.
The number of cuts that settle goes down
Twenty-five of thirty reach an onset over three hundred organs. Over six hundred, twenty-four do.
That is the wrong direction for the obvious expectation. More room should let a slow profile finish settling, and one row did the opposite: it reported an onset over the short run and reports none at all over the long one.
And no row gained one
Not one of the five that failed to settle over three hundred organs settles over six hundred. Two of them stop being ragged — their classes come much closer together — but neither reaches the point where every class stays on its level for the rest of the run.
So doubling the run did not rescue a single slow case. Whatever the five are doing, it is not settling slowly.
Where the onsets move to
On the nineteen rows of twenty-four that report an onset at both lengths and move by more than twenty organs, they move a long way. The 0.016 stem’s cut four organs back reports 135 organs at three hundred and 435 at six hundred. The 0.010 stem’s three cuts report 18, 0 and 1 at three hundred and 128 at six hundred, all three.
The range the thread has been quoting — 7 to 303 organs — becomes 28 to 473.
Why an onset moves at all
Because it is measured against the levels the classes hold at the end of the run. The definition is the first lag from which every class stays within a few degrees of its own tail mean for the rest of the run, and the tail is wherever the run stops.
A profile that drifts slowly is compared against one set of levels at three hundred organs and a slightly different set at six hundred. Organs that were within a few degrees of the short run’s levels are not within a few degrees of the long run’s, and the onset moves up to find a place where they are.
Which makes the onset a property of two things
The cut and the run length. That is not a fault in the measurement so much as a fact about what it is: “the first lag from which nothing changes again” is only defined relative to a horizon, and the horizon here is the end of a run somebody chose.
Every quantity of that shape has the same problem. The useful response is not to find a horizon-free definition — there may not be one — but to report the horizon beside the number, which the thread has not been doing.
The row at three hundred and three
One row reported an onset of 299 organs into a 300-organ run, at a lag of 303 from the hole. Over six hundred organs it reports no onset at all.
That is the cleanest result of the sixty runs. An onset at the last organ of a run is not a measurement of when a pattern started; it is a measurement of when the run stopped, because the condition “stays on its level for the rest of the run” is trivially satisfied by the last organ. It has an essay of its own.
The periodicity reading moves too
Whether a profile counts as periodic is decided by the widest spread inside any one class, against a line at ten degrees. Twenty-five rows are inside it at three hundred organs; twenty-six are at six hundred.
The count barely moves and the membership does. Three rows cross the line, two in one direction and one in the other, and that is the second essay.
The gap narrows
The line at ten degrees was chosen because the two populations were separated by one: periodic rows measured 0.12° to 6.09° and the rest measured 10.3° and up, so the line sat in a gap of a factor of 1.69.
At six hundred organs the gap is a factor of 1.27. It is still a gap and it is narrower, which means the threshold is doing more work than it was. A tolerance chosen because it sat in empty space is worth re-checking whenever the space fills.
A definition that would not move
There is one, and it is worth writing down even though it has not been used. Define the onset against the levels measured over a fixed window — the organs between the two hundredth and the three hundred and twentieth, say — rather than against the tail of whatever run was grown. Then the levels are the same at both lengths by construction and the onset is a property of the cut alone.
What that definition loses is the thing the current one was for: it can no longer say that nothing changes again, only that nothing changed inside a chosen stretch. The two definitions answer different questions and the thread has been using one while quoting the other.
The refusal that goes with the reading
A run shorter than the window has no window to read, and the machinery refuses it rather than returning a spread measured over five readings a class. At a surviving lag of eight, a hundred and twenty organs is fifteen samples a class; at forty organs it would be five, and five readings are steady whatever the profile does.
That refusal is the same one the periodicity reading already carried, applied to the run length rather than to the window. It is the check that stops the doubling comparison from being run in reverse against something too short to answer.
What is not affected
The shape. The claim that a wrecked stem’s profile is levels rather than scatter survives the doubling on twenty-six rows of thirty, and the levels themselves are where they were: the exceptional pair, its size and its direction are unchanged on every row that carries one at both lengths.
So the thread’s central result is not run-length dependent. What is run-length dependent is every reading about when — the onset, the transient’s size, and the classification of the marginal rows.
That split is the useful thing to carry out of this. The exchange and its direction are readings about what, and they are stable. The readings that move are the ones that ask how long something took, and those have a horizon in their definition whether or not it is written down.
Why six hundred and not more
Because doubling is the shortest length that can distinguish a reading about the cut from a reading about the run, and because the thread’s other two-length comparison — the settling test — uses the same trick for the same reason.
A longer run would say more and cost more. If the onsets move again between six hundred and twelve hundred, then no length is a horizon and the quantity has to be redefined rather than re-measured. That is the next test and it has not been run.
The cost, and why it was not paid earlier
Two minutes. Sixty runs at six hundred organs, on a machine that has spent hours on this census already.
The reason it was not paid is not cost. It is that “300 organs” had been a constant of the thread since it began, and a constant stops being visible: the readings were quoted with a range and without the length that produced the range, and nothing in the record flagged the 303 as the number it obviously is.
Two minutes against five rounds
The comparison is sixty runs and takes about as long as reading this paragraph twice. The readings it corrects have been quoted in five separate essays across the thread’s whole history.
That ratio is the recurring shape of this collection’s leavings, and it is worth naming rather than apologising for. The expensive thing is never the run; it is noticing that a constant is a parameter. Three hundred organs had been in the code since the census was built, it appeared in no essay’s prose, and nothing in the record asked what would happen if it were four hundred.
What a reader should carry
That the periodicity is robust and the timing is not. If an essay in this thread says a profile becomes a pattern after so many organs, the number is about a three-hundred-organ run, and doubling the run moves it by up to three hundred organs.
And that the direction of the surprise matters: fewer cuts settle over a longer run, not more. A reading that gets rarer when the instrument improves was probably being manufactured by the instrument — which is the same argument the reference organ failed on, one thread over, when a maximum turned out to be a plateau.
What it does to one row of another thread
The exchange thread scores four accounts of the exchanged pair’s size on seventeen rows and fits worst on the Lucas 0.013 stem’s cut four organs back. That row is one of the three this comparison moves, and it moves out of the periodic group.
Neither measurement knew about the other. One says a row fits a rule badly; the other says the same row’s reading was taken over a window still inside a transient. Agreement between instruments that were not looking for each other is worth more than either.
The five that never settle
They are the golden 0.026 stem’s cut four organs back, the golden 0.010 stem’s cuts four and five organs back, and the Lucas 0.020 stem’s cuts four and five. Four of the five are cuts four or five organs back, which is the shallowest part of the census.
Whether that is a pattern or a coincidence is not decidable on five rows. What can be said is that they are not slow settlers: doubling the run does not settle them, and two of them become much steadier without ever reaching the condition. Something else is happening on those runs and this comparison does not say what.
What the census would need
Twelve hundred organs on those five, which is another two minutes, and it would separate two accounts: a transient with a very long tail, and a profile that is genuinely not periodic at any length. The first would eventually settle and the second never will.
That is the obvious next run and it is not in this comparison, because the comparison was designed to check a number — the 303 — rather than to characterise a group. Designing to check one number and then finding a group is the ordinary way a sweep outgrows its own question.
The one line
Thirty wrecked cuts, run twice as far: the shape survives, the timing does not. Nineteen of twenty-four onsets move by more than twenty organs and one moves by three hundred, the range 7 to 303 becomes 28 to 473, one row loses its onset entirely, and no row gains one.
The profile computed here at the old length reproduces the thread’s own to the last digit, so the only thing that changed is how far the runs were allowed to go.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Reads more easily once this is understood
Essays that name this one as worth reading first.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- The offsets that never change — both name ablation, census, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, sampling, selection effect
- The plateau was a prediction — both name ablation, artefact, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, rigid hop, selection effect, summary statistic, transient
- The alternation is not a period — both name ablation, artefact, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, sampling
- A list that was a rounding — both name artefact, census, claim testing, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, selection effect, tolerance
- Three offsets, three crossings — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, sampling
- A period the grid invented — both name ablation, artefact, claim testing, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, summary statistic
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationArtefactCensusClaim testingControlHonest limitsMeasurementNegative resultReproducibilityResolutionRigid hopSamplingSelection effectSummary statisticToleranceTransient