Read as degrees of drift getting through rather than as a ratio, and compared seed by seed, the deep and shallow rules change hands. The share that goes to the deeper rule climbs from twenty-three per cent under white noise to ninety-four at a correlation length of a hundred organs — and the crossing sits at two or three organs whether the two rules differ by a factor of four or sixty-one.
A rule with a deep neighbourhood was supposed to correct a slow
drift and let a fast one through; a rule
with a shallow one, the reverse. The crossover between them was supposed to sit
where the drift’s correlation length matched the depth. Swept across a factor of
sixty in the depth, the measurement found no crossover at any
depth and the deep rule passing
more rather than less.
Two things have changed since. The neighbourhood has been counted four
ways and they all give the same
ordering, so the result is not an artefact of the definition. And the organs at
the top of the rule’s
profile turn out to be
the same five at every exponent, so a sweep of the exponent was never sweeping the
thing a filter argument is about.
Fig. 1 Where the two changes leave the sweep: a neighbourhood that moves by sixty organs by one measure and six by another, with the same ordering under both.
This essay changes the quantity being read, and a corner appears.
Fig. 2 The statistic, drawn. How far the block means wander as the block grows, against what independent draws would give.
That denominator is the scatter of the divergences themselves, and the scatter
depends on the exponent for reasons that have nothing to do with drift: a shallow
rule makes a noisier lattice. Across the sweep the scatter runs from 0.205° at the
deepest to 0.321° at the shallowest — a factor of 1.57 — while the drift getting
through, measured in degrees, moves by a factor of 1.20.
Fig. 3 The two moving in opposite directions. Most of what the ratio reported was the denominator, which is a fact about the lattice rather than about the drift.Fig. 4 The denominator on its own: how much a stem’s divergences scatter under a disturbance, which is what a shallow rule does more of at every colour.
So the quantity to compare is degrees of drift getting through — the ratio
undone, the scatter multiplied back in. That is the quantity a reader of a real
stem would measure, and it is the one this essay uses.
The quantity deserves a definition, because two are in play and the whole result
turns on which is read.
Take the divergences of a stem grown under a disturbance. Split them into blocks of
sixty-four and take the mean of each block. If the disturbance had no memory, those
block means would scatter by the divergence scatter divided by eight; a drift moves
them further. The wander is how much further, as a ratio to what independent
draws would give.
Fig. 5 The wander as the block size grows, on lattices with a stated colour of disturbance and no rule in them. This is the quantity before the rule is applied to it.
Degrees through is the wander’s square root multiplied by the scatter of the
divergences themselves — which undoes the normalisation and gives the actual size,
in degrees, of the slow movement in the block means.
Fig. 6 Why the two can disagree: two runs matched on scatter can carry very different amounts of drift, and two runs carrying the same drift can have very different scatter.
Both are legitimate. The wander answers “how much of the drift survived, relative
to the noise floor”; degrees through answers “how big is the slow movement anybody
would measure”. The first has the noise floor in its denominator and the noise
floor is a strong function of the exponent, which is what makes it the wrong one
for a comparison across exponents.
Fig. 7 The floor in question: how much a stem’s divergences scatter, which is set by the rule and not by the disturbance.
Paired seeds, because the spread is larger than the effect #
Degrees through is noisy. At one setting of the rule and one colour of
disturbance, six random seeds give answers spanning a factor of 1.4 to 2.6. The
difference between two rules at one colour is smaller than that.
Fig. 8 Why a mean of six is not enough: two runs of the same rule with different seeds differ by more than two rules differ from each other.
Comparing two means with that much spread under them compares two numbers whose
ranges overlap. So the comparison is paired: the same disturbance — the same
seed, the same sequence of displacements — is given to both rules, and what is
recorded is which of the two let more of it through.
Fig. 9 The pairing, in a neighbouring experiment: one seed driving two settings, so that the difference between them is not a difference between two draws.Fig. 10 And the reason pairing is worth the trouble here: the quantity carries a large seed-to-seed component that a paired design removes and an unpaired one does not.
Then the comparisons are pooled. Every pair of exponents whose neighbourhoods
differ by at least a factor of three — eight pairs out of the ten available — is
run at six seeds, giving forty-eight paired comparisons at each colour.
Fig. 11 One pair of rules across the colours, seed by seed. Below the line means the shallower rule let more through. The slider walks every pair of exponents whose neighbourhoods differ by at least a factor of three.
Against white noise the shallower rule lets more drift through, at
thirty-seven comparisons out of forty-eight. At a correlation length of a hundred
organs the deeper rule does, at forty-five out of forty-eight. The share rises
at every step in between, and it crosses a half between correlation lengths of
1.4 and 2.8 organs.
Fig. 12 The narrowest pair in the comparison, at a factor of under four between the two neighbourhoods. The same shape, and the crossing in the same place.
That is a corner. The earlier sweep could not see it because the ratio it was
reading has the scatter in its denominator, and the scatter moves the other way
with the exponent — enough to hold the ratio’s ordering fixed across the whole
range of colours.
Fig. 13 The colours the sweep runs over: a disturbance with no memory at one end and one whose correlation outlasts the front at the other.
Ten pairs of exponents are available and two of them are excluded, by a rule
stated before the comparison rather than after it.
The exclusion is on the ratio between the two neighbourhoods: a pair is compared
only if one is at least three times the other. Exponents 1.5 and 2 describe
neighbourhoods of 182 and 120 organs, a factor of one and a half, and exponents 4
and 6 describe 8 and 3, a factor of two and two thirds. Those two pairs are
comparisons between rules that are very nearly the same rule.
Fig. 14 The quantity the exclusion is stated on, and beside it the stricter share: the neighbourhoods, and how far apart consecutive exponents put them.
What they do is what nearly-identical rules should do. The 1.5-against-2
comparison gives four, two, four, three, three and four seeds out of six across the
colours — a coin toss at every one, with no trend. Including it would have added
noise to the pooled share and, more importantly, would have added a pair with no
crossing to a claim about where crossings sit.
Fig. 15 One of the pairs that is included, for comparison with what an excluded one looks like: a clear trend rather than a coin toss.
The exclusion also cuts the other way and is worth checking for that. If the
crossing were an artefact of which pairs were chosen, the eight would not agree —
and they do: every one has the shallower rule ahead at white noise, every one has
the deeper rule ahead at the longest colour, and all eight cross within the first
ten organs.
Fig. 16 The last of the eight, over a shorter list of colours. Which colours are sampled changes nothing about where the two change hands.
This is the claim that separates a corner from a filter. A filter’s corner sits at
its own scale, so two rules whose neighbourhoods differ by a factor of sixty should
change hands somewhere quite different from two whose neighbourhoods differ by
four.
They do not.
Every one of the eight pairs has the shallower rule ahead against white noise and
the deeper rule ahead at the longest correlation. Every one of them changes hands
inside the first ten organs of correlation. The pair whose neighbourhoods are
182 organs and 3 crosses between 1.4 and 2.8; the pair whose neighbourhoods
are 120 and 30 crosses between 2.8 and 4.5.
Fig. 17 The widest pair available, at a factor of sixty-one between the two neighbourhoods, crossing where the narrowest pair crosses.Fig. 18 And the pair whose two neighbourhoods are 120 organs and 30. If the crossing tracked the depth, these two figures would look nothing like each other.
The crossing is also shorter than every neighbourhood in the comparison. It
sits at two or three organs; the neighbourhoods it is comparing are 182, 120, 30,
8 and 3 organs wide by the nine-tenths count, and 68, 45, 21, 14 and 11 by the
weighted mean. Only one of the ten numbers is anywhere near the crossing.
Fig. 19 The neighbourhoods, against a crossing at two or three organs. A filter whose corner sits sixty times below its own width is not filtering.
The disturbance, and what its correlation length means #
The knob being swept is the memory of the jostle, and it is worth saying exactly
what is varied and what is held.
Each organ is displaced by a small amount before the rule places it. The
displacements are drawn from a first-order autoregressive process: each one is a
fixed fraction of the last plus a fresh draw. That fraction is the knob. Its
correlation length — the number of organs over which the disturbance forgets
itself — runs from zero at white noise to about a hundred at the largest setting
used here.
Fig. 20 The disturbances themselves, and where they enter: each organ displaced before the rule places it, with the same amplitude throughout and a memory that runs from none to about a hundred organs.
The amplitude is held fixed at a quarter of a degree per organ, and it is held
fixed after the disturbance is divided by its own measured standard deviation.
Without that division the correlation coefficient would change the size of the
disturbance as well as its colour, and a sweep of the colour would be partly a
sweep of the amplitude.
Fig. 21 Why the normalisation matters: the amount of disturbance is a strong lever on everything downstream, so it has to be the thing held rather than the thing that drifts.Fig. 22 And the check that the runs are runs: whether the pattern survives at all across the amplitudes and colours the sweep uses.
So what varies across the columns of the table is one thing — how far into the
past a displacement remembers — with the size of the displacement, the rise, the
grid, the run length and the block size all fixed.
The measurement stops here and the reading is short, so it is worth marking where
one ends and the other begins.
Measured: the two rules change hands at a correlation length of two or three
organs, at every separation of depth tried, and the crossing does not move with
the depth.
Fig. 23 One more pair, for the record. Eight of them behave this way and none behaves otherwise.
Read: the scale that does not move with the exponent is the contact scale.
The five organs carrying the largest terms of the profile are the same five at
every exponent, so whatever the rule is holding on to is held at the same distance
throughout. A disturbance correlated over fewer organs than that is something the
rule can average away regardless of how far its tail reaches; one correlated over
more is something every version of the rule carries.
Fig. 24 The scale in question: the steps of the contact families, which are what the largest terms of the profile are, and which the exponent does not move.
That reading is consistent with everything measured and it is not established by
it. Two organs is also roughly the shortest correlation that is distinguishable
from none at these run lengths, so a crossing there is consistent with “any memory
at all changes the sign” as well as with “the contact scale sets it”. Separating
those two would need a sweep of the rise, which moves the contact scale while
leaving everything else alone.
Fig. 25 The sweep that would separate them, and is not made here: the rise moves the contact numbers from three to thirty-four while the rule stays exactly the same.
The statistic is deliberately coarse — it throws away how much more one rule
passed and keeps only which — so it is worth being clear about the price.
What it buys is robustness. A ratio of two noisy quantities has a distribution
with tails; a count of which of two paired numbers is larger does not care how
long the tails are. With six seeds a pair gives six comparisons and the sampling
noise is a binomial with a known shape, so a five-one split at one colour is
informative and a three-three split is not, without any assumption about how the
underlying quantity is distributed.
Fig. 26 The general form of the arithmetic: how many independent comparisons a difference of a given size needs before it is distinguishable from a coin.
What it costs is size. The table says which rule passes more at each colour and
says nothing about by how much. From the means, the answer is “not much”: at the
longest correlation the deep rule passes 1.83° and the shallow one 1.44°, a factor
of 1.27, and at white noise 0.39° against 0.58°, a factor of 1.51. Those are real
differences and they are small beside the seed-to-seed spread, which is exactly
why the pairing was needed.
Fig. 27 And the spread that swamps it: two runs of one rule differing by more than two rules differ from each other.
So the corner is established as a change of sign and not as a magnitude. Anybody
wanting the size of the effect would need many more seeds; anybody wanting to know
whether it changes sign, and where, has what they need here.
The earlier result said there was no corner. There is one; it was in a quantity
with a moving denominator and was invisible in the ratio.
The earlier result also said the deep rule passes more drift than the shallow one.
That stands, and now has a boundary on it: it is true past a correlation length of
about three organs and false below it.
Fig. 28 The claim that survives, with its new boundary. Past a few organs of memory the deeper rule really does pass more.
And the prediction the whole thread started from — that the crossover tracks the
neighbourhood — is refuted for a second time and more cleanly than before. It is
not that no crossing exists. It is that the crossing exists, is sharp, and sits in
the same place for rules whose neighbourhoods differ by a factor of sixty-one.
Fig. 29 The null this thread was built on and which still holds: a disturbance’s memory changes nothing a counter reports, however much of it there is. What it changes is a quantity nobody would read off a specimen, and that is where the corner is.
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
A difference forgets a drift— both name autocorrelation, ensemble, honest limits, measurement, negative result, noise, summary statistic
A disturbance the organs share— both name autocorrelation, ensemble, honest limits, measurement, noise, the placement rule, self correction
A rule that cannot heal a hole— both name autocorrelation, ensemble, honest limits, measurement, noise, the placement rule, self correction
The disturbance that travels— both name autocorrelation, ensemble, honest limits, measurement, noise, the placement rule, self correction
The fragility belonged to the window— both name ensemble, the range of the interaction, negative result, neighbourhood, noise, the placement rule, prediction
The memory was the rise— both name autocorrelation, ensemble, measurement, noise, the placement rule, self correction, summary statistic