Concept

Selection effect — where it appears

A bias introduced by which cases get recorded rather than by how they are measured. Fibonacci counts are reported more readily than the exceptions, so the literature's frequency is not the plants' frequency.

Named by 26 essays across 4 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The spiral counts four different divergence angles produce. Fibonacci counts come from one angle. The Lucas angle — which the same dynamical model reaches on a different branch — gives 47 and 76, and neither number is a Fibonacci number.

Fibonacci is a branch, not a law

Fibonacci counts come from one branch of the model. The Lucas branch — which the same rule reaches at a different growth rate — gives 47 and 76, and neither is a Fibonacci number. The sequence is a consequence of an angle rather than a property of plants.

wrong · Fibbranch
What the sequence sees that the scatter cannot. Each point is an ensemble at one amplitude, placed at the scatter it produces. A stem at three quarters of a degree of scatter has a lag-one correlation near zero if its noise arrived after the primordium was placed, and near 0.7 if it arrived before — and no measurement of the scatter can tell those apart. The separation closes above about a degree, because what the other two kinds preserve is the correlation of a lattice.

What a quiet plant is worth

Almost every measurement gets easier as the effect gets larger. This one gets harder — a stem's divergence sequence stops carrying information about its noise at precisely the scatter where the noise becomes obvious. The specimens worth measuring are the ones that look least interesting.

wrong · Survey spec
Five fractions with one neighbour distance and every denominator. Each member of a matched set drawn on its own stretch of the divergence axis, 0.5° either side of itself, with the nearest other rational marked. The distances are 0.3651°, 0.3529°, 0.3692°, 0.3640°, 0.3557° — a spread of 4.6% — while the denominators run 17, 20, 25, 43, 44, a factor of 2.59. That is the construction this thread needed. Every instrument for the width of a disorder dip has a free parameter set by how close the neighbour is, so a hypothesis about the neighbourhood cannot be tested by varying the neighbourhood; on this set the neighbourhood is held fixed and the arithmetic of the fraction is what varies.

Matching instead of correcting

Two rounds of work failed on one question because every instrument's free parameter was set by the thing under test. The repair was not a better instrument or a model of the bias: it was choosing what to compare so that the confound could not vary. That move is available in four other places here, and three of them have already used it without anybody naming it.

wrong · Instrument ceiling
How constant the displacement is inside one residue class. One row per wrecked cut in the census, drawn at the widest spread found inside any one residue class when the profile is folded on the lag that stem kept. 25 of 30 rows sit between 0.12 and 6.09 degrees, which on a quantity whose between-class differences run past a hundred and fifty degrees is a constant. The five that do not sit from 10.3° up. There is nothing in between, so the line drawn at 10° could have been drawn anywhere in a wide interval.

The plateau was a prediction

The search for a reference organ found that the largest displacement above a hole is a plateau rather than a peak, and reported it as a failure. A profile constant on each of k residue classes has exactly k levels, so its maximum is attained by a whole class — a ninth to a quarter of every window, forever.

mechanism · Damage shape
How many counts the census spends when an announced reading is counted again, against counting 13/21 once. Each specimen is counted with a closing error spread over 7.2°, and a reading whose counts share a factor is counted again, up to the number of counts on the horizontal axis; a specimen whose every count announces itself is set aside. Plotted is the census's cost in counts — kept specimens needed times counts spent per kept specimen — solid when the plants are grown and counted at the stated pair, dashed when they are the geometry's. The flat line is 13/21 counted once and every reading scored: 6 counts. 34/55: 29.5, 24.4, 20.7, 21.1, 21.5, 22.6 counts on grown plants, cheapest at 2; 55/89: 71.3, 58.5, 51.7, 52.5, 53.2, 55.3 counts on grown plants, cheapest at 3.

Counting it again

A reading whose two counts share a factor says the count went wrong, and the specimen is still there to be counted again. Counted afresh, the reading kept is exactly one reading conditioned on not announcing itself — the second chance a silent error gets is matched by the second chance a right reading gets — so a recount changes which specimens a census keeps, not what a kept reading says. At 34/55 with closing errors spread over 7.2° it takes the census from fifteen kept specimens to ten and from about thirty counts to twenty-one, and against scoring every reading it turns 449 counts at 55/89 into 52. It never makes a high count as cheap as counting 13/21 once.

wrong · Sample size
The interaction across each rung, coarse end to fine end. One line per rung, drawn against where in the rung each lattice sits — nought at the coarse end, one at the fine end, measured in the logarithm of the rise. The lines are flat. Inside a rung the interaction moves by 3.3 to 13.6 degrees, against a spread of 240 degrees across the ladder, and it falls from the coarse end to the fine one on 6 of the 7 rungs. Position inside a rung was the candidate this design was built to test and it is not what decides the sign.

The exception was already labelled

The larger counted number sorts twenty-two of twenty-four lattices by the sign of their slot interaction. Both misses are on the Lucas 3/4 rung — the one rung a different measurement had already singled out, for reasons with nothing to do with this one.

mechanism · Both walls
Where the pattern starts, measured at two run lengths. One row per wrecked cut. The small mark is the onset a 300-organ run reports and the ring is what a 600-organ run reports; a row with only one mark reports an onset at only one length. 19 of the 24 rows that report both move by more than twenty organs, and the largest move is from 135 to 435. The range the thread has been quoting, 7 to 303 organs, becomes 28 to 473.

Twice the run

Five wrecked cuts never reached a pattern inside three hundred organs and one reached it at three hundred and three, which is a number asking to be checked. Run every cut in the census twice as far and three of the thirty change their answer.

mechanism · Run length
Shared counted numbers against shared survivors. One row per matched pair, over both branches. The third column is the counted numbers the two rungs have in common and the fourth is the families both stems leave standing; on every row the two are the same set. The row whose rungs share no counted number is the one whose stems share no survivor, which is what makes this a claim about an intersection rather than a restatement that a survivor is usually a contact family. four rows, and the empty case is one of them.

Where the survivors meet

At a matched pair the two stems keep exactly the counted numbers their two pairs have in common — the 5 where 3/5 meets 5/8, the 8 where 5/8 meets 8/13, the 7 where 4/7 meets 7/11, and nothing at all where 3/5 meets 8/13. Four rows, including the empty one.

cylinder · Same angle
Where the pattern starts, measured at two run lengths. One row per wrecked cut. The small mark is the onset a 300-organ run reports and the ring is what a 600-organ run reports; a row with only one mark reports an onset at only one length. 19 of the 24 rows that report both move by more than twenty organs, and the largest move is from 135 to 435. The range the thread has been quoting, 7 to 303 organs, becomes 28 to 473.

An onset at the end of the run

One cut reported that its pattern began 299 organs into a 300-organ run. Given twice the room it reports no pattern at all. The reading was the run stopping, not the disturbance ending, and the definition guarantees one at the last organ of every run.

mechanism · Run length
How steady each class is, over 300 organs and over 600. Each mark is one wrecked cut, placed across at the widest spread found inside any one of its residue classes over the shorter run and up at the same reading over the longer one. A mark on the diagonal is a row the two lengths agree about. The rules are the 10 degrees that separates a profile called periodic from one that is not: three rows fall in different quadrants at the two lengths, two of them becoming periodic and one ceasing to be. The gap between the two groups narrows from 1.69 times to 1.27.

A window nobody aligned

Every reading this thread takes of a wrecked stem is taken inside a window, and there are three of them: a run of three hundred organs, a window of a hundred and twenty at its top, and a search window of fifteen to thirty-nine. None was aligned to anything, and one of them turned out to decide its own answers.

mechanism · Run length
What each band holds, and what it moves. One row per band. The counted pair is held by construction and the settled divergence is held to a twentieth of a degree; the quantity a band exists to move is which of the two contact steps is the shorter. five of the six do move it — the ordering changes hands exactly once inside, and at both ends the two steps differ by enough for an ordering to mean anything. The remaining one changes hands three times and its two steps are never more than 0.0 per cent apart, so it holds all three quantities and is a control rather than an experiment.

A band that moves nothing

One of the six bands holds the counted pair, holds the divergence, and does not move the ordering: its two contact steps stay within four parts in a thousand of each other across the whole of it, so the ordering changes hands three times and neither end has one worth the name.

cylinder · Rung interior
The 13 cuts the exchange sets aside, chain by chain. One row per wrecked cut with no balanced pair, one cell per chain of the lag it kept, and the chains displaced away from the common level filled. The lag is printed at the left and the sum of the displacements at the right, folded into half a turn either way. seven of the 13 sum to within 12 degrees of nothing and six do not, and every row that closes kept a lag of 7 or 8 while every row that does not kept 4 or 5. The rows are stacked by that lag.

The rows nobody added up

Seventeen of the census's thirty wrecked cuts come back as one balanced pair of displaced chains, and every claim about the exchange is quantified over those seventeen. The other thirteen were set aside as having three or more exceptions and never looked at again. They are one addition each.

mechanism · Damage shape
Offset 4 across the 8/13 band, rise by rise. The family this one offset keeps at each of the band's 126 rises, coarse on the left. It wrecks at 98 of them and keeps the 8-family throughout. The ticks below mark no island: the answer changes once and stays changed. The handover is the taller rule and the change of answer is nowhere near it.

The offsets that never change

Three of the six offsets that wreck anywhere on the band keep the same family at every rise they wreck at — 98, 22 and 81 rises of the 126. And which offsets wreck at all is a function of the rise, which no reading of a band had drawn.

cylinder · Rung interior
How far each set-aside row's rearrangement is from closing, at both levels. Every row the exchange sets aside, placed by how far its displacements sum from nothing after folding. A mark below the line kept a lag of seven or more and one above kept four or five, which is the rule that sorts them. At the median level the rule is wrong on one row of 16, at -22.6 degrees, and the two populations are 6.3 degrees apart. At the recomputed level it is right on every one of 15 — one row having left the set entirely — and the gap is 3.2 degrees, with the nearest open row at 12.1 against a threshold of 12.

The rule comes back

A rule sorting the awkward rows was right fifteen times in sixteen, with the one failure blamed on a statistic. Recomputing the statistic makes it fifteen of fifteen — and halves the gap the line is drawn in, which is the price.

mechanism · Damage shape
The column the census never carried. One row per lattice the ablation census was grown at. The bar shows where inside its own rung that rise sat, measured in the logarithm of the rise because the ladder is geometric, with zero the coarse transition and one the fine one. The mark on each bar is that rung's own handover, the rise where the two contact steps change places. Of the ten lattices that ever wreck, eight sit past their handover and one sit before it, with one sitting so close to one that the two steps differ by parts in a thousand. The rise was recorded in every table this collection has published; this fraction was in none of them.

The column that cost no stems

Every table in this collection records the rise a stem was grown at. None records where inside its own rung that rise sat, and the fraction turns out to be computable from numbers already written down — which makes it the cheapest column anybody here has ever added and the one that changes the most about how the tables read.

emergence · Survey spec
The column the census never carried. One row per lattice the ablation census was grown at. The bar shows where inside its own rung that rise sat, measured in the logarithm of the rise because the ladder is geometric, with zero the coarse transition and one the fine one. The mark on each bar is that rung's own handover, the rise where the two contact steps change places. Of the ten lattices that ever wreck, eight sit past their handover and one sit before it, with one sitting so close to one that the two steps differ by parts in a thousand. The rise was recorded in every table this collection has published; this fraction was in none of them.

The side the census sat on

Eight of the ten lattices the ablation census wrecks at were grown past their rung's handover, one before it, and one so close that the ordering it quotes differs by parts in a thousand. A reading scored over the step ordering was therefore scored against a quantity the census was nearly holding fixed.

emergence · Survey spec
Every divergence a stem settles on, by falloff exponent. One row per exponent, one mark per distinct settled divergence anywhere in that column, read to a tenth of a degree. This is the sharpest instrument in the sweep and the cheapest: it is already in every run, it does not average, and it is read on the same azimuth grid at every exponent. The steeper falloffs reach 42.3°, 47.9°, 148.1° — values that appear nowhere in the two shallower columns — while the traffic the other way is empty. So the exponent changes the map of where a stem can end up while leaving alone the share of starting angles that end up anywhere, which is a result a measurement of "did it settle" was never going to find.

Destinations only a steep rule reaches

A settled stem's divergence is the sharpest instrument in the sweep and the cheapest: it is already in every run, it does not average, and it is read on one grid at every exponent. Exponents 4 and 5 reach 42.3°, 47.9° and 148.1°, and the two shallower ones reach none of them.

emergence · Settling
What the 3 steep-only destinations count as. Each block is a divergence that only the two steeper falloff exponents settle a stem on, with the pair a counter returns and the sequence that pair belongs to. All three count. None is a rung of either ladder. Two of them are the only members of their sequence anywhere in the table; the third, at 148.1 degrees, is the coarsest rung of a sequence that supplies another destination at every exponent — so it is not a new kind of arrangement but a coarser one of a kind the table already reached.

What a steep rule counts as

Exponents four and five settle stems on 42.3°, 47.9° and 148.1°, and the two shallower ones reach none of them. All three count: 8/9, 8/15 and 2/5. None is a rung of either ladder, and one of them is the coarsest rung of a sequence the table already had.

emergence · Settling
The 10 sequences the settling table's destinations belong to. Every pair the counter returns is two consecutive terms of a sequence in which each term is the sum of the two before it, which is the ladder's own rule. two of these are the sequences plants are observed to follow. The rest are not, and they are not rare: the 1, 4, 5, 9, 14 sequence and the 2, 5, 7, 12, 19 sequence each supply several destinations, at every falloff exponent the table is grown at. The right-hand column is the divergences that land on each.

Ten sequences, two of them the ladder's

Every parastichy pair the settling table produces is two consecutive terms of a sequence in which each term is the sum of the two before it. Ten such sequences account for all fifteen destinations — nine, once one of the ten turns out to be a reading rather than a ladder — and the two the collection is built on are neither the largest nor the smallest.

emergence · Off-ladder
The destinations a steep rule reaches, read two ways. Above: the list read to a tenth of a degree, which is what the settling table prints — 13 entries. Below: the same list read at half a degree, which is two steps of the grid the azimuths are placed on — 3. The 10 entries the finer reading adds are destinations a shallow exponent also reaches, a tenth or two of a degree away, and a tenth of a degree is a fifth of one step of that grid. The pale marks are every destination in the table, for scale.

A list that was a rounding

Three destinations only a steep falloff reaches, read at two grid steps. Thirteen, read at a tenth of a degree. And four arrangements, read by what the counter returns rather than by the angle — a different four, with one the angle reading hides.

emergence · Off-ladder
How often each group of starting angles reaches a lattice. The share of runs that settle, for the nine angles the table was grown from, for eight angles placed halfway between them, and for three angles below the nine's lowest. The nine settle far more often than either. So it is the refinement rather than the extension that drags the share down, and the settling share this collection reports is biased upwards by the choice of angles rather than by their range.

Round numbers are not a sample

The nine starting angles the settling table was grown from reach a lattice four times in ten. Eight angles placed exactly halfway between them reach one a quarter of the time. The difference is not noise and it is not the range — several of the nine sit next door to somewhere a stem could settle.

emergence · Settling
How often a stem settles, at three samplings of the starting angle. The share of runs that reach a lattice, over the whole table of four falloff exponents by eight rises. The upper three bars are the pooled share at nine, twenty and forty starting angles; the lower three are the share for each group of angles on its own. The pooled figure falls 40.6 to 32.3 to 30.0 per cent, by 8.3 points and then 2.3, so it is converging. The eleven angles added at twenty and the twenty added at forty settle at 25.6 and 27.7 per cent, which differ by less than their own error.

Forty angles, and a limit

Nine starting angles turned out to be a biased sample of the circle, and doubling to twenty said by how much. Doubling again says the estimate is converging — to a smaller correction than one doubling extrapolated to.

emergence · Settling
Destinations found at nine, twenty and forty starting angles. How many distinct divergences the settling table reaches at each sampling, split into those sitting on the golden or Lucas sequence and those off both. The on-ladder count is 5 at every sampling, over a fourfold refinement of the starting angle — so the rule's on-ladder targets were enumerated by the first nine runs. The off-ladder count goes 10, 13, 14, and the one the last doubling found is off both ladders.

A list that can only shrink

The destinations only a steep falloff reaches grew from three to five when the sampling doubled, and everyone read it as a list filling in. Doubling again takes two off it, which is the only direction a list defined by an absence can ever move.

emergence · Settling
The widest basin, at twenty starting angles and at forty. The starting angles of one cell of the table, drawn as ticks, with the run of consecutive angles that all reach one destination filled. At twenty angles it holds 7 angles and spans 43.75 degrees; at forty it holds 14 and spans 47.5. Halving the spacing doubled the count and left the width where it was, which is what a real basin does and what a run of angles produced by the sampling does not. The other half of the same table goes the other way: 170 of 233 runs are a single angle, against 116 of 151.

A basin that doubled

A run of consecutive starting angles reaching one destination is a basin, and its width is a lower bound. Halving the spacing doubled the angles in the widest one and left its width alone, which is what a real basin does and a sampling artefact does not.

emergence · Settling

The coarse design scored

Every claim this thread has made about an uncut band rests on a sample of nine rises, and its record was the argument for trusting it. Six whole bands close that record, and two of its six correct verdicts are correct only because there was nothing on those bands to find.

cylinder · Rung interior

A wrecking set with a range

Which offsets wreck a stem was taken to be a property of the lattice, and every band cut whole has found it to be a property of the rise instead. Six bands turn that replication into a measured range, and the range is a factor of fifty-one.

cylinder · Rung interior

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

Honest limitsClaim testingMeasurementNegative resultSamplingAblationCensusParastichy pairControlResolutionArtefactDivergence angle

All concepts