The exception was already labelled
Worth reading first: Both walls of the slot · Where a handover sits · The organ that was taken away.
A rule that sorts twenty-two of twenty-four rows has two misses, and where the misses are matters more than how many there are. Two misses scattered across two rungs is a rule that is roughly right. Two misses on one rung is a rule that is right with an exception, and an exception is a thing that can be named.
Both misses here are on the Lucas 3/4 rung. Its larger counted number is 4, so the rule says its interaction should be small or negative, and its two measured lattices give +90.5° and +85.1°. They are not near the line: they sit with the golden 8/13 and the Lucas 7/11, at the positive end of a table whose other end they were predicted to be at.
The rung’s third lattice is not in the count at all, for a reason of its own, and that turns out to matter.
The rung was already marked
Not by this thread. The handover sweep grows a band around the rise at which a rung’s two contact steps change places, and it reported the Lucas 3/4 as unlike the other five it found.
Its two contact steps stay within four parts in a thousand of each other across the whole of its band. On every other rung the two steps separate cleanly on either side of the crossing; here they never separate at all, so the ordering between them changes hands three times inside one band, and the sweep calls the band a control rather than an experiment.
And it was marked twice
The same sweep predicts a band’s width from the curvature of the settled divergence at the handover, and on five of six rungs the prediction is right to within a third. On the Lucas 3/4 it is wrong by a factor of nearly six.
The reason is in the fit: the linear term in the divergence at the handover is 0.005 to 0.13 on the five rungs the prediction works for, and 2.19 on this one. The prediction assumes a stationary point and this rung does not have one.
So the same rung fails two unrelated tests
One is about how two step lengths behave across a rung and one is about what happens when two organs are removed from a stem. They share a rung and they share nothing else: no quantity, no design, no window.
The Lucas 3/4 is one rung of eight. If the two anomalies were independent, the chance of them landing together is one in eight. That is suggestive and it is not evidence, and stating it as one in eight is the honest form.
A third mark, from this thread
There is one more, and it belongs to this design rather than to the handover sweep. Of the eight rungs, only two go free at their fine end — only two have a lattice where removing both walls costs what removing the larger costs — and the Lucas 3/4 is one of them.
The other is the golden 5/8, which is the most-sampled rung in the whole census and the one nearly every earlier measurement in this thread was made on. So the two rungs that behave unusually at their fine ends are the one that was already flagged and the one that has been looked at hardest, which is exactly the pair a selection effect would produce.
What makes a rung strange
A rung is a stretch of rise over which a stem’s counted pair does not change. Inside it everything else does: the settled divergence slides, the two contact steps lengthen and shorten at different rates, and at some rise the shorter of the two becomes the longer.
On most rungs those two steps are clearly different lengths for most of the rung and equal only at a point. On the Lucas 3/4 they are nearly equal everywhere, which makes every quantity that depends on which of them is shorter into a quantity with no signal in it.
Which is a reason the interaction might be different
The slot’s two walls are the two contact numbers. If the two contact steps are the same length, the two walls are the same kind of thing and the slot is symmetric — and a symmetric slot has no smaller and larger wall, only two walls.
That is a candidate account and it makes a prediction: the two single removals should cost more nearly the same on this rung than on the others. They cost 45.7° and 8.7° at one position and 49.0° and 15.7° at the next, a ratio of five and three. The prediction fails.
And a reason it might not be
The steps being close in length is not the same as the walls being close in effect. A step length is a distance across the surface; a removal’s cost is what the placement rule does when an organ is gone, and the rule sums over a neighbourhood with an exponent in it.
Two organs at nearly the same distance can be doing very different things if one of them is inside the reach and the other is at the edge of it. So the account is not refuted by the failed prediction; it is unsupported by it, which is a weaker and more accurate statement.
The rung’s own fine end
The Lucas 3/4’s third lattice, at 85% of the way down it, is not in the table at all. It is one of the six rows where the second wall is free: the pair costs 23.0° and the larger wall alone costs 23.2°.
So this rung has two lattices with the largest interaction the rule fails to predict, and a third where the interaction is not a measurement. It is the only rung in the design that does both.
And that third lattice wrecks
Either single removal on it heals — the stem recovers its divergence and its counted pair. Removing both wrecks it. That is the strongest form the interaction takes, a rung no single removal can reach, and it happens on a row where the cheap reading says the second removal did nothing.
The cheap reading is the displacement of the next organ placed. The expensive reading is what the run becomes three hundred organs later. Here they disagree completely, and the essay that separated the transient from the pattern is the reason it is not a contradiction.
What a control is for
The handover sweep calls this rung a control because a band whose ordering never resolves is a band where the design’s own variable does not vary. A control is worth having: it is where a claim that the ordering does not decide the survivor can be checked against a band that holds the ordering still.
A control in one design is not a control in another. Here the rung is not a control; it is the row the rule cannot sort, and the same property that makes it useful over there makes it awkward here. That is a general hazard with a shared vocabulary: the ordering was not the actor on the bands precisely because this rung held it still, and the holding-still is what breaks the sorting here.
The selection worry
A reader should be suspicious of “the exception was already labelled”. The ladder has eight rungs and several of them have been called unusual for something at some point, and picking out the label that matches after the exception is known is how a coincidence becomes a story.
So the claim is stated narrowly. The Lucas 3/4 was singled out in writing, in a different thread, before this table existed, on two measurements neither of which involves an ablation. That is checkable and it is what “already labelled” is meant to mean.
The other way to read it
There is a reading in which the rung is not an exception at all. If the interaction is really set by the width of the slot rather than by the counted number — the account the sign rule leaves open — then a rung whose two contact steps are the same length has a slot of a shape no other rung has, and it could sit anywhere on the scale without breaking anything.
On that reading the counted number was never the actor; it was a label on the several quantities that move together down a ladder, and the Lucas 3/4 is the rung where those quantities come apart. That would make it the most informative rung in the design rather than its awkward one.
Distinguishing the two readings takes a measurement nobody has made: the angular width of the slot after each removal, on stems already grown.
What is not claimed
That the rung’s strangeness explains the interaction. Nothing here connects a pair of contact steps that never separate to a pair of removals that cost more together than apart, and the one candidate connection — a symmetric slot — makes a prediction that fails.
What is claimed is smaller and more useful: the rule’s error is not distributed. It is concentrated on a rung that an unrelated measurement had already found to be unlike the others, so the rule should be read as holding on the ladder’s ordinary rungs and as untested on its strange one.
The rung is short, and that matters
The Lucas 3/4 spans nearly the whole of one factor in the rise — from 0.064 to 0.0239 — so it is not short at all as a rung. Its band is short: sixteen rises, three per cent of the rung, against seventy-two per cent for the widest.
Those are different quantities and it is easy to slide between them. The rung is long and ordinary in extent; the stretch of it over which the two contact steps are in doubt is nearly the whole of it, which is why the band grown by the width rule comes out tiny.
A test the ladder cannot supply
The rule’s threshold sits between a larger counted number of 7 and one of 8, and there is no rung on either branch whose larger number is 9 or 10. So the threshold is fitted into a gap and cannot be probed from inside the ladder.
The Lucas 3/4 is the only rung that sits on the wrong side of it, and it does so by five counted numbers rather than by one. A rung with a larger number of 5 or 6 that came out positive would be a much sharper problem, and neither branch has one.
Where the numbers 9 and 10 do occur
On other additive sequences, which stems do settle on: the settling test reaches several of them, including one running 1, 4, 5, 9, 14 and another running 2, 7, 9, 16.
A stem grown to one of those and cut at its two contact numbers would put a larger counted number of 9 into this table. It is four runs and it has not been done, which makes it the sharpest untried test this thread has — sharper than a finer sweep of the rung, because it would put the rule’s threshold under a value rather than beside it. It is recorded as an outstanding check rather than as an intention.
What this rung would need
Ten lattices on it rather than three, spread across its whole span, with the two single removals and the pair at each. If the interaction is positive down its whole length and collapses only at its very fine end, the rule has a genuine exception. If it crosses zero somewhere in the middle, the rung is not an exception at all — it is a rung with a transition in it, and the three sampled positions happened to straddle the transition.
Thirty runs. The design that produced this table samples three positions a rung because three is the smallest number that can show a trend, and three is not enough to find a crossing. That distinction — between a sweep that can show a trend and one that can locate a feature — is the same one a band cut at nine rises rather than every rise turns out to have got wrong in the other direction.
Why the exception is worth an essay
Because a rule that sorts a table is worth exactly as much as the account of its failures. Twenty-two of twenty-four with the misses named, on a rung that was independently strange, is a different claim from twenty-two of twenty-four with two rows shrugged at.
The first can be tested — grow the rung finely, or find a 9 elsewhere. The second cannot be tested at all, which is the whole objection to it.
What carries forward
The rule, with its exception stated. The Lucas 3/4 rung, now marked by three unrelated measurements rather than two. And two designs that have not been run: a fine sweep of one rung, and a stem grown on a sequence the ladder does not carry.
Neither is expensive. Both were available while this table was being built and neither was done, which is the ordinary reason a shortfall exists.
The one line
The larger counted number sorts the slot interaction on twenty-two of twenty-four lattices, and both misses are the Lucas 3/4 rung — the one rung a sweep of contact steps had already called a control rather than an experiment, on measurements with no ablation in them.
One rung of eight, so the coincidence is one in eight, and the account that would connect the two anomalies makes a prediction that fails.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- Six lattices were not enough — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, the range of the interaction, lattice offset, matched design, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung
- The offsets that never change — both name ablation, claim testing, control, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung, selection effect
- Three offsets, three crossings — both name ablation, claim testing, control, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, matched design, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung
- The side the census sat on — both name ablation, claim testing, control, handover, honest limits, lattice offset, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung, selection effect
- One offset, two answers — both name ablation, claim testing, control, honest limits, lattice offset, measurement, negative result, parastichy pair, rise, rung
- Seven rises and two seeds — both name ablation, control, honest limits, ladder, lucas numbers, matched design, measurement, parastichy pair, rise, rung
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationClaim testingControlHandoverHonest limitsThe range of the interactionLadderLattice offsetLucas numbersMatched designMeasurementNegative resultParastichy pairRiseRungSelection effect