Destinations only a steep rule reaches
Worth reading first: How long a stem takes to settle · The angle is an output · A pattern with a rate.
Two hundred and eighty-eight stems, four falloff exponents, and the share that reach a lattice does not move. How long they take does, by a factor of nearly three.
There is a third reading in the same runs and it is the sharpest of the three. Every settled stem has a divergence, and where a stem ends up is a much finer question than whether it got there.
Why a destination is a good instrument
Three reasons, and all three are about it costing nothing.
It is already computed. A settling time is read off a run’s divergence sequence, so the settled value is a by-product of the measurement that was already being made.
It does not average. A share of nine runs has an error of 0.17; a settled divergence is one number per run and two runs either agree or they do not.
And it is read on the same grid at every exponent — 1,536 candidate azimuths, 0.234° a step — so a comparison across exponents is a comparison of quantities measured the same way.
What the columns hold
At exponent 2 the twenty distinct destinations run from 79.6° to 157.6°. At 3, seventeen from 65.2° to 151.3°. At 4, eighteen from 42.3° to 157.7°. At 5, twenty from 42.3° to 157.7°.
Most of them are shared. Every column has values near 79°, near 99° to 102°, near 137°, and near 150° — which are the two branches of the ladder and two other places stems fall into.
The values only the steep columns reach
42.3°, 47.9° and 148.1°.
None of them appears within a degree of anything in the exponent-2 or exponent-3 columns. 42.3° and 47.9° appear at both 4 and 5; 148.1° appears at 5 only.
They are not near-misses of anything. The nearest thing the shallow columns hold to 42.3° is 65.2°, twenty-three degrees away; to 47.9° the same; and to 148.1° the nearest is 150.4°, which is two and a quarter degrees — nine grid steps, and the one of the three worth being careful about.
And the traffic the other way is empty
Every destination the two shallow columns reach, a steep column reaches within a degree. Nothing is lost by steepening the falloff; three things are gained.
That asymmetry is the part that makes this a result rather than a difference of samples. Two columns drawn from one set of destinations would each miss some by chance and the misses would go both ways. Here they go one way.
It is worth saying how strong that is with 72 runs a column: not very. Nine destinations appear in exactly one column somewhere in the table, and three of them are the three above. The claim is that the pattern of which column has the extras is one-sided, and nine is not many.
Where the new destinations come from
The fine rises, and specifically the corner of the table where the basin is nearly closed. 42.3° appears at exponents 4 and 5 at rises of 0.0045 and 0.004; 47.9° at rises of 0.005 and 0.0045; 148.1° at exponent 5 at a rise of 0.030.
Two of the three are therefore at the fine end, which is where the slow settling also sits. The third is at the coarsest rise in the sweep, which is not.
So it is not simply that a nearly-closed basin admits odd arrivals. One of the three is at the far end of the table from that.
What 42.3° is not
It is not on either branch. The golden branch converges on 137.5078° and the Lucas on 99.5016°, and the ladder’s rungs sit between 136.6° and 140.7° on one and 99.1° and 104.8° on the other.
It is not a mirror of anything on them: 360° − 42.3° is 317.7°, which folds to 42.3° again, and neither branch reaches it.
And it is not a rational angle of small denominator. 42.3° is not 360/8.5 or 360/9 (40°) or 3×360/25 (43.2°) to the resolution the grid gives. The nearest simple rational is a ninth of a turn, 1.8° away — eight grid steps.
So it is a place a stem settles that this collection has no name for and no ladder containing.
What 148.1° and 150.4° are
The 150° cluster is not new. It is in every column — 150.4°, 150.6°, 150.8°, 150.9°, 151.0°, 151.1°, 151.3°, 151.5° — and it is where the fine end’s few survivors settle: 151.3° is the divergence the single surviving starting angle reaches at a rise of 0.003.
148.1° sits two and a quarter degrees below that cluster and appears once, at exponent 5 and a rise of 0.030. Whether it is a member of the cluster or a separate destination is not answerable from one run.
That is the honest reading and it takes one of the three claimed values down to a maybe. The two low destinations do not depend on it.
What it means for the wall
The wall is where the basin closes, and the share that reaches a lattice at all does not move with the exponent. What moves is the map: which arrangements exist to be reached.
That is a different quantity from the one the account of the wall was about. The account said the basin narrows; the measurement says the basin is the same size and contains different things.
A narrower version of that is testable and is not tested here: whether the number of distinct destinations differs by exponent. It is 20, 17, 18 and 20, which is flat, and a count of distinct values over 72 runs is a statistic with an awkward distribution that this essay is not going to lean on.
What a specimen would show
A count, not an angle. A stem settled on 42.3° would return some counted pair, and that pair is what a plant supplies — the divergence is the harder measurement and the count is the easy one.
So the honest transfer of this result to anything observable is: a placement rule with a steeper falloff produces arrangements whose counted pairs are not on either ladder. Whether it does is not measured here; the counter was not run on the runs that settled on 42.3°.
That is one line of code and it is a leaving rather than an omission, because a counter needs a stem grown long enough to count and the settling runs were grown for a different purpose.
What the three readings say together
The exponent does not change how many starting angles find a lattice. It nearly triples how long they take. And it adds three destinations and removes none.
Read as one sentence: the exponent changes the map without changing how much of it is reachable. That is a specific enough statement to be wrong, and it is the kind of statement a table of shares could never have produced — which is the methodological point the three essays share.
The four clusters every column holds
Around 79°, around 99° to 102°, around 137°, and around 150°.
The second and third are the two branches of the ladder: a Lucas stem settles near 99.5° and a golden one near 137.5°, and the rungs spread each of those over a few degrees. Those two account for most of the entries in every column.
The 150° cluster is the fine end’s own destination — the divergence the last surviving starting angles reach below the wall — and it appears at every exponent. The 79° cluster is the fourth and this collection has no account of it either; it appears at every exponent too, so it is not new here.
So the map has four regions at every exponent and the steep ones add points below all four.
How a destination is read
As a mean over the last sixty divergences of a run, folded so that a stem ending on 220.9° is recorded at 139.1° — the same arrangement traversed the other way.
That fold matters for a comparison across exponents, because without it a column could appear to reach a destination another does not simply by having wound the other way. It is the same fold the settling table uses, and it is applied before any mean is taken rather than after, since a mean over both representations is a number belonging to neither.
The values are then rounded to a tenth of a degree, which is under half the azimuth grid’s own step, so two runs reported at the same destination did land in the same neighbourhood rather than being rounded together.
The count of destinations
Twenty, seventeen, eighteen and twenty across the four columns, from 72 runs each of which 30, 31, 29 and 27 settle.
So the number of distinct destinations is roughly two thirds of the number of settled runs at every exponent, and it is flat. That is a statistic with an awkward distribution — it depends on how many runs settled, which itself varies — and it is not leaned on.
What it does rule out is a picture in which the steeper rules simply have more places to go. They have the same number of places and three of them are different places, which is a change in the map’s contents rather than in its size.
Why this is the reading to have taken first
It costs nothing and it is the sharpest.
Every run in the sweep already had its settled divergence computed, because that is how a settling time is defined. Reading the list of distinct values takes no additional computation at all, and it separates the four exponents where a share of 72 runs cannot.
The order the three readings were taken in was share, then time, then destination — which is the order of decreasing cost and increasing information, run backwards. That is worth noticing rather than moralising about: the share is the quantity the question was asked in, and asking a question in a quantity is how a measurement gets chosen.
What a destination is not
A rung. The ladder’s rungs are ranges of rises at which a counter returns one pair, and a destination is a divergence a stem settles on — so the two are different objects and a new destination does not add a rung.
Whether it adds one is answerable and is the obvious next measurement. Grow stems at exponent 5 across a range of rises, count each one’s pair from its points, and see whether 42.3° sits on a run of rises returning one pair. If it does there is a ladder down there nobody has walked; if it does not, 42.3° is an isolated arrangement.
The ladder sweep already does exactly that at exponent three, in 288 runs a branch. At exponent five it is the same 288 runs and it was not part of this round’s slate.
Why the shallow columns’ emptiness is the load-bearing half
Three values appearing only in the steep columns could be three values the shallow columns happened not to sample. Three values appearing only in the steep columns while nothing appears only in the shallow ones is harder to produce that way.
If both sets were drawn from one pool, each column would miss some by chance and the misses would be roughly symmetric. Four columns, 20, 17, 18 and 20 distinct values, and a one-sided difference of three is not decisive at these numbers — but it is the shape a real difference has and a sampling artefact usually does not.
The honest weight is: suggestive, one-sided, three values, and testable in one sweep.
What the destinations say about the two branches
Nothing changes about them. Every column reaches the golden neighbourhood between 136.6° and 139.3° and the Lucas one between 99.0° and 101.8°, and the values inside those bands are the ladder’s rungs at whichever rises settled.
That is the control the comparison needs. If the steeper exponents had lost the branches, or shifted them, the columns would not be four measurements of one thing and the extra destinations would be a different phenomenon.
They do not. The branches are where they are at every exponent, to within the spread a handful of rises produces, and the three extra values sit outside both of them by twenty degrees or more.
Reading the three together
The share does not move; the clock nearly triples; the map gains three points and loses none.
The three are read from one set of 288 runs and they cost, in order, nothing extra, nothing extra, and nothing extra — every one of them is already computed by the time a settling time exists. So the difference between finding an effect and not finding one, in this sweep, was entirely a matter of which of three free readings was taken.
That is the methodological content and it generalises past this table. A sweep produces runs; a run has many readings; and the question a sweep was designed around picks one of them, usually the coarsest.
What a stem settling on 42.3° would look like
An arrangement with organs a ninth of a turn or so apart in azimuth, which is a much coarser rotation than either branch’s.
Whether that is a lattice with a countable pair, a whorled arrangement with organs effectively arriving together, or something with no regularity a counter can read, is not answered — the counter was not run on those runs, because the settling sweep was built to time arrivals rather than to classify them.
It is one line of code and two of the three things it could return would be interesting. A countable pair at 42.3° would be a rung off the ladder; no countable pair would say the settling test admits arrangements the rest of this collection would not call lattices.
The one line
Exponents 4 and 5 settle stems on 42.3°, 47.9° and 148.1°, none of which appears within a degree of anything the exponent-2 or exponent-3 columns reach — while every destination those two reach, a steep column reaches. The share that settles does not move and the map does. The weakest of the three values is 148.1°, which sits nine grid steps from an existing cluster and appears once.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- A period the grid invented — both name attractor, claim testing, discretisation, divergence angle, honest limits, measurement, negative result, the placement rule, resolution, summary statistic
- The pair read from the angles — both name claim testing, divergence angle, exponent, honest limits, measurement, resolution, summary statistic
- The slide a counter holds constant — both name claim testing, divergence angle, honest limits, measurement, negative result, the placement rule, summary statistic
- The stem that changed hands — both name attractor, basin, divergence angle, honest limits, initial condition, measurement, the placement rule
- Two-ranked, by two different routes — both name attractor, discretisation, divergence angle, honest limits, initial condition, measurement, the placement rule
- A band that moves nothing — both name discretisation, divergence angle, measurement, negative result, resolution, selection effect
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AttractorBasinClaim testingDiscretisationDivergence angleExponentHonest limitsInitial conditionMeasurementNegative resultThe placement ruleResolutionSelection effectSummary statistic