A window nobody aligned
Worth reading first: Twice the run · The damage has a period · The organ that was taken away.
There are three windows in this thread and no essay has listed them together. A run of three hundred organs above the hole. A reading window of a hundred and twenty at the top of it, over which the levels are measured. And a search window of three times the larger counted number — fifteen to thirty-nine organs — inside which the most disturbed organ was once looked for.
Every number the census reports comes through at least one of them. This essay is the audit, and the reason for making it is that two of the three have now been shown to decide their own answers — one of them only after five rounds of quoting a number it had manufactured.
The search window went first
It was three times the larger counted number because that is the most generous reading of “near the hole” that is still a window. The organ that moved furthest was looked for inside it, and the search failed: the largest displacement turned out to be a plateau rather than a peak, so the maximum names an arbitrary organ.
Then it turned out to be worse than that. The disturbance has two regimes — a transient below the onset and a pattern above it — and the search window sits inside the transient on some rows and inside the pattern on others, because the onset runs from a few organs to a few hundred and the window is fifteen to thirty-nine.
The run went second
Three hundred organs, and it had been a constant since the census was built. Running every cut twice as far moves nineteen of the twenty-four onsets by more than twenty organs, moves one by three hundred, and removes one entirely.
The reason is that the onset is measured against the levels the classes hold at the end of the run, so the levels move when the run does. That is a property of the definition and not of the stems.
The reading window has not been moved
A hundred and twenty organs, chosen because it is the window the surviving hop is identified in, and for the same reason: at a surviving lag of eight it gives fifteen readings a class, which is enough for a class mean to be a mean.
Nobody has varied it. Sixty organs would give seven or eight readings a class and a hundred and eighty would give twenty-two, and both are available on runs already grown. It is the cheapest untested thing in this thread.
A narrower window makes every class look steadier, because a spread over fewer readings is smaller for the same underlying scatter. So the direction of the risk is known in advance: if the window matters, the periodicity count is too high and not too low, and the rows nearest the line are the ones it would move.
Which readings depend on which
Worth setting out, because the thread’s essays do not distinguish them.
The first organ’s displacement depends on no window at all: it is one organ, named by the cut. The surviving lag, the block and the slip are read over the reading window. The onset and the transient’s size depend on the run and on the reading window together. The periodicity classification depends on both.
So of six quantities the thread reports, one is window-free, three depend on one window, and two depend on two. The exchanged pair’s size and direction belong to the middle group: they are read off the levels, so they inherit the reading window and not the run length, and they are unchanged on every row that carries a pair at both lengths.
Why the list was never made
Because the windows arrived one at a time, each for a good local reason, and each in a file that had no view of the others. The search window came from a question about where a disturbance is worst. The reading window was borrowed from the file that identifies the surviving hop, for its own good reason. The run length was a constant in the code that grows a cut.
Nothing wrong happened at any of those three moments. What is missing is the step where somebody asks what the three do together, and that step has no natural home: it belongs to none of the files and to all of them.
The window-free one is the one that works
The displacement of the first organ placed after the removal separates cheap removals from expensive ones with a gap in the middle: 9° to 31° on one side and 63° to 168° on the other, with nothing between.
That is the cleanest result in the thread and it is the only reading that does not pass through a window. It is not obvious that those two facts are connected, and it would be strange if they were unconnected.
The honest version is weaker than it sounds. A reading of one organ has no window because there is nothing to average, and a quantity with nothing to average is a quantity with no noise suppression either. It is clean here because the effect it measures is enormous — tens of degrees against a grid of a quarter of one — and on a smaller effect the same reading would be the noisiest in the thread rather than the cleanest.
What a window has to be aligned to
Something in the stem. A window of a hundred and twenty organs is a window of fifteen periods on a stem whose surviving lag is eight and of twenty-four on one whose lag is five, so the same window is a different instrument on different rows.
That is fixable and has not been fixed: measure over a fixed number of periods rather than of organs, and every row gets the same number of readings a class. Fifteen periods would be 60, 75, 105 and 120 organs at the four surviving lags in the census.
Which might matter and might not
The prediction is specific: if the reading window is doing work, the rows with the shortest periods should look steadiest, because they have the most readings a class. The four surviving lags in the census are 4, 5, 7 and 8, and the spreads are 0.12° to 8.11°.
Sorting the spreads by lag is arithmetic on a table already computed, and it has not been done. If short-period rows are systematically steadier, the periodicity reading is partly a reading of how many samples each class got.
The one that is a length rather than a window
The runs start at organ four hundred. That is where the history ends and the continuation begins, and every cut in the census removes an organ from the last few of those four hundred.
Four hundred organs is long enough for the stem to have settled — the settling thread puts the slowest arrival at 290 organs at this falloff — so it is not an arbitrary number. It is the only one of the four that was chosen against a measurement.
What a window costs when it is right
Nothing, and that is why they proliferate. A window that is comfortably wider than the structure it contains produces the right answer and leaves no trace in the result, so there is never any pressure to justify it.
The pressure arrives all at once, when a row turns up whose structure is wider than the window, and by then the window is in five essays as a constant. Every one of this thread’s three windows was harmless for several rounds before it was not, and the reference organ is the worked example: its search window was fine on every row until the transient was measured and turned out to run from seven organs to three hundred.
What an audit is worth
Two of the three windows in this thread have now been found to decide answers, and both were found by moving them rather than by reasoning about them. The third has not been moved.
That ratio is the argument for the audit. A window that has not been varied is not a window that has been shown to be harmless; it is a window nobody has looked at, and the two look identical from inside the results.
Three windows and one grid
There is a fourth instrument and it belongs in the list even though it has caused no trouble. Every azimuth in every run is chosen from 1,536 candidates, so all of these readings are quantised at a quarter of a degree.
It has caused no trouble because the quantities are tens and hundreds of degrees and the grid is a quarter of one. Where it has come close is in the rows where a pair removal costs exactly what a single one costs, which agree to the last digit of the grid — and there the right response was to ask how large the effect would have to be to be visible, rather than to trust the agreement.
The general form
A reading through a window is safe when the window is wide compared with whatever structure it is meant to contain, and dangerous when it is comparable. The search window failed because the structure — the transient — is sometimes ten times its width and sometimes a tenth.
The reading window’s structure is the period, and a hundred and twenty organs holds fifteen to thirty of them, so it is comfortably wide. The run’s structure is the transient again, and three hundred organs holds it on most rows and not on all.
Which predicts where the next failure is
On the rows with the longest transients. The onset over six hundred organs reaches 473 organs, which is well past halfway, so the reading window on those rows sits close to the end of the transient rather than well inside the pattern.
That is checkable on runs already grown: compare the levels measured over the last hundred and twenty organs with those measured over the previous hundred and twenty. If they agree, the window is past the transient. If they do not, the row’s levels are still moving and its spread is a reading of the drift.
What has been done about it
The run has been doubled and the results reported. The onset now refuses to report a value at the end of a run. And the levels are still measured over a hundred and twenty organs at the top of whatever run was grown, unchanged.
Two of three, which is the honest state. The third is a four-line change and a re-run, and it is written down here rather than left as an intention.
The shortfall, stated
Vary the reading window at sixty, a hundred and twenty and a hundred and eighty organs on all thirty cuts at six hundred, and report the spread at each. Ninety readings on runs already computed, and it would say whether the periodicity classification is a property of the stems or partly of the window.
It is not in this round. Naming it is the least that can be done and the most that should be claimed, and it goes into the record beside the other checks this thread owes rather than into a sentence promising to get to it.
What a reader should carry away
That the shape of the damage — levels, one per chain, with an exchanged pair among them — survives every window this thread has moved. That the timing does not survive the run length. And that the reading window has not been moved and so is not known to be harmless.
The distinction between “checked and fine” and “not checked” is the whole content of an audit, and it is the distinction that is easiest to lose when results are quoted without their instruments.
Two other threads with the same audit owing
The band sweep reads a survivor at every rise of a band, and the survivor is read from a run of its own with its own length. Nothing in the band work has varied that length, and a band’s speckle is exactly the kind of feature a marginal instrument produces.
The settling table reads a destination from the last stretch of a run and asks whether it has settled. That thread has done its own two-length comparison and is the only one in this collection that has — which is why its guard against reporting a settling time on a run that never settled was already in place when this thread needed one.
What would make this permanent
A rule rather than an essay: every reading taken through a window reports the window beside it. That is a change to how the census prints rather than to what it computes, and it would have made the 7-to-303 range read as 7 to 303 organs, over runs of 300 — which is a sentence somebody would have questioned.
It costs nothing and nobody does it, because a constant that appears in every row looks like it does not need saying. That is exactly when it does.
The one line
Three windows: a search window that failed, a run length that moves nineteen of twenty-four onsets and changes three rows’ classification, and a reading window that nobody has varied.
The one reading in the thread that passes through no window at all — the displacement of the first organ placed after the removal — is also the cleanest result it has.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- Three rows change sides — both name ablation, artefact, census, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, summary statistic, tolerance, transient
- The plateau was a prediction — both name ablation, artefact, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, rigid hop, selection effect, summary statistic, transient
- Which chains changed places — both name ablation, census, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, summary statistic, transient
- A fifth of the hop — both name ablation, census, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, summary statistic
- Four accounts of one angle — both name ablation, census, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, summary statistic
- The alternation is not a period — both name ablation, artefact, claim testing, control, honest limits, measurement, negative result, resolution, rigid hop, sampling
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
AblationArtefactCensusClaim testingControlHonest limitsMeasurementNegative resultResolutionRigid hopSamplingSelection effectSummary statisticToleranceTransient