Concept

Survey — where it appears

A census of real specimens with a stated protocol, which this collection specifies and does not have. What it would have to record — the counting radius, the handedness, the pair, the height — is derived from what the open questions actually need.

Named by 26 essays across 3 fields — each of them below, with the objects they name alongside it.

The spiral counts four different divergence angles produce. Fibonacci counts come from one angle. The Lucas angle — which the same dynamical model reaches on a different branch — gives 47 and 76, and neither number is a Fibonacci number.

Fibonacci is a branch, not a law

Fibonacci counts come from one branch of the model. The Lucas branch — which the same rule reaches at a different growth rate — gives 47 and 76, and neither is a Fibonacci number. The sequence is a consequence of an angle rather than a property of plants.

wrong · Fibbranch
What the "whorled" bucket contains, at a rise of 0.008. 7 pairs, sharing 7 different factors, and every one of them is k and 2k. The bucket the previous census called whorled is the coarsest pattern the ladder has, repeated k times around the stem — not a residue of odd arrangements.

What "whorled" was hiding

The earlier work's census put 35% of divergences in a bucket labelled whorled and moved on. Opened, every pair in it is k and 2k — the coarsest rung of the ladder, repeated k times — and reading the census up to jugacy takes the Fibonacci share from 14.7% to 50.1% without describing a single extra plant.

wrong · Jugate census
The uninformative sample does not say so — it says something else. Above: how many junctions of a given asymmetry it takes to distinguish an exponent of 3 from an exponent of 2, at 2% measurement error on each radius. An even fork needs one; a junction whose small daughter is a twentieth of the large one needs 2195. Below: 50 junctions from each end of the range, on a synthetic tree built at exactly 3. The even forks return 3.01; the twigs return 1.69, with an interval no wider — because 47% of them measure as a parent thinner than its own larger daughter, and dropping those keeps only the half where the noise ran the right way.

Which junctions say anything

Da Vinci's rule and Murray's law differ by 12% at an even fork and by a tenth of a per cent at a twig. So one even fork settles which is right, and two thousand twigs do not — a factor of two thousand across a tree, decided entirely by the shape of the junction and not by how carefully it is measured.

branching · Exponent
The uninformative sample does not say so — it says something else. Above: how many junctions of a given asymmetry it takes to distinguish an exponent of 3 from an exponent of 2, at 2% measurement error on each radius. An even fork needs one; a junction whose small daughter is a twentieth of the large one needs 2195. Below: 50 junctions from each end of the range, on a synthetic tree built at exactly 3. The even forks return 3.01; the twigs return 1.69, with an interval no wider — because 47% of them measure as a parent thinner than its own larger daughter, and dropping those keeps only the half where the noise ran the right way.

A sample that is confidently wrong

Fifty lopsided junctions from a tree built at an exponent of exactly 3 return 1.7, with an interval that excludes 3 and excludes 2 as well. The sample carrying almost no information does not give a wide answer — it gives a narrow wrong one, and the cause is a selection nobody applies on purpose.

branching · Exponent
What a divergence picked at random gives, at a rise of 0.100. Fibonacci pairs take 59.6% of the circle at this rise, and the share falls as the rise does. The claim that Fibonacci counts are what nature "prefers" needs the preference to come from somewhere, and it is not from the geometry being generous.

How often is it Fibonacci

The claim that plant spirals come in consecutive Fibonacci numbers is stated as a near-universal. Asked of the geometry, the answer collapses with scale — at a coarse rise 67% of divergences give Fibonacci pairs, and at a fine one 15%, with whorled and unnamed pairs taking the rest.

wrong · Frequency
A count of m and n pins the divergence to 221°/mn. Each dot is one reported pair, and its height is the total width of the divergence angles that could have produced it at some rise. 2/3 leaves 38.8° open; 34/55 leaves 0.118°. The line is 221°/mn, taken from the three highest pairs and drawn back through the rest.

What a count is worth

A reported parastichy pair pins the divergence angle to a band 221°/mn wide — so 2 and 3 says almost nothing and 34 and 55 fixes it to a tenth of a degree. Each step up the Fibonacci sequence is worth a factor of φ², and recording the radius a pair was counted at adds only ten per cent.

wrong · Count value
14 specimens separate 14.7% from 50%. The exact binomial power against sample size, for a one-sided test at 5 per cent. It is a staircase rather than a curve because the decision rule is a whole number of specimens: at 14 the cut sits at 5 and the power is 91.0 per cent. A normal approximation smooths that staircase away and reports a different answer.

How many plants would it take

Fourteen specimens separate the geometry's Fibonacci share from a coin weighted to a half. Four separate it from what a grown history gives. One fir cone measured at three rings settles whether its transitions are spaced as a cone's or an ogive's. The sample sizes are small, and that is the uncomfortable part.

wrong · Sample size
Every open question here needs under 34 specimens. The sample size at which each comparison reaches 90 per cent power at a 5 per cent false-positive rate, from the exact binomial rather than a normal approximation. The census question — do plants show consecutive Fibonacci pairs far more often than the geometry does — needs 4: 14.7% is the share of divergence angles giving a consecutive Fibonacci pair at a fine rise; 90% is what a grown history gives.

The survey this site cannot do

Four rounds of asking for a dataset, and it is still not here. What the work here can do instead is specify it — the fields, the sampling, the sizes, and which of this collection's claims each one would settle. Two of the four fields asked for turn out to be worth less than the asking implied, and one was never asked for at all.

wrong · Survey spec
What the experiment costs, in internodes. The combined sampling band of two autocorrelations falls as one over the root of the sequence length. The difference to be resolved is 0.76 — between noise that arrives before the primordium is placed and noise that arrives after — so the count needed is 56 internodes on a single stem. Every other open question in this collection is priced in tens of specimens.

The test a plant could settle

Every other open question in this collection is priced in tens of specimens, and one of them in a hundred and sixty. This one is priced in internodes on a single stem, and the number is fifty-six — because it is a statistic of one sequence rather than a share of a population.

wrong · Sequence
What the sequence sees that the scatter cannot. Each point is an ensemble at one amplitude, placed at the scatter it produces. A stem at three quarters of a degree of scatter has a lag-one correlation near zero if its noise arrived after the primordium was placed, and near 0.7 if it arrived before — and no measurement of the scatter can tell those apart. The separation closes above about a degree, because what the other two kinds preserve is the correlation of a lattice.

What a quiet plant is worth

Almost every measurement gets easier as the effect gets larger. This one gets harder — a stem's divergence sequence stops carrying information about its noise at precisely the scatter where the noise becomes obvious. The specimens worth measuring are the ones that look least interesting.

wrong · Survey spec
At 1.0 per cent on each ring, 5 rings show the drift. The gaps between consecutive rings are 1.626, 1.631, 1.657, 1.763. Two rings give one gap and no way to disagree with itself; three give two gaps and a fit with nothing left over. The question is how many gaps it takes for their spread to exceed what the measuring error can explain, and the answer depends on the error as much as on the organ.

How much of a cone to measure

Two rings cannot show a varying exponent — not with difficulty, but in principle, because one gap determines one exponent with nothing left to disagree. Four or five can, if each is found to within a per cent. At three per cent this specimen cannot be told from a power law however many of its rings are recorded.

cylinder · Ring identifiability
The measurement is limited by the protractor, not by the plant. The peak falls as the reading error grows, and it falls by an arithmetic factor with nothing fitted: a position error enters two consecutive divergences with opposite signs, adding variance at every lag while the pattern's signal sits at one. At a quarter of a degree the readout is right on all 5 runs; at half a degree on 2; at a degree on 1. Below the dashed floor the peak is the largest of thirty noisy numbers rather than a measurement.

What the protractor has to be

The readout that names the parastichy number costs sixty internodes, which is cheap. It also needs every organ's position measured to better than a quarter of a degree, which is not — and the requirement follows from arithmetic rather than from care, so no amount of averaging relaxes it.

wrong · Sequence
The statistic everybody reports is the one that cannot vary. Six arrangements of 900 points, from a whorled lattice to a set with no rule in it. The mean number of sides per cell is 5.97–6.04 on all six, because Euler's formula forces it. The mean squared departure from six runs from 0.023 to 1.83 — a factor of 79 — and the most hexagonal tissue in the set is the whorled one, at a rational angle.

What a summary throws away

Four statistics this collection has relied on turn out to be incapable of varying with the thing they describe — one is invariant to shuffling, one is fixed by a theorem, one is a parameter that stopped mattering, one is a fitted number selected into being wrong. In each case the second statistic was free and nobody had taken it.

wrong · Second statistic
What the pair costs, at a rise of 0.005. Five seeded stems at each length, read at four protractor errors. With no reading error the pair needs 250 internodes — against the sixty the single parastichy number costs. At 0.25° per organ it needs 250; At 0.5° per organ it needs 400; At 0.75° per organ it needs 1100. The pattern's own scatter here is 0.70°, so the last of those is a reading error larger than the signal being read.

What the pair costs

The single parastichy number cost sixty internodes. The pair costs two hundred and fifty, and a protractor error of three quarters of a degree takes it to eleven hundred. The arithmetic that predicts the second of those is right about the shape and wrong about the scale by a consistent factor, which is recorded rather than fitted away.

wrong · Survey spec
Both statistics, on the same stems, at a rise of 0.005. Five seeded stems at each disturbance, held at a fixed rise. Bars are how many returned the pair the position counter finds; open portions are refusals. The pair comes out from 0.1 to 0.25, and across that whole range the lag-one correlation of the same sequences is -0.33, -0.58, -0.59 — decisive, negative and flat. There is no trade between the two: one stem supplies both. Below the window the sequence has locked onto the sampling grid and is a cycle rather than a sample; above it there is no lattice left, at 117° of scatter.

What a refusal does not say

The readout can decline for four different reasons — too quiet, too disturbed, too fast, or a window in the wrong place — and a stem that returns nothing does not say which. That is the third time this thread has failed to close the mixture problem, and the first time the failure has a shape.

wrong · Survey spec
Both ends of the window are silent, and a ruler tells them apart. The scatter recorded on stems at 400 nodes per rung, against the disturbance that produced it, with the stems that returned no reading at all marked as open. Silence at the quiet end comes with a scatter of 0.38 and 0.44°, which any botanist would call an orderly plant; silence at the disturbed end comes with 56°, which nobody would call a pattern. The two refusals look identical in the instrument's output and are three orders of magnitude apart in a quantity measured with a protractor.

A refusal with a reason

Three note left with the work running have recorded that a refusal has four causes and the sequence separates none of them. With a second window and a protractor, three are separated: silence at 0.38° of scatter is a quiet plant, silence at 56° is a disorderly one, and agreement certifies the rate. The fourth survives, and so does a worse discovery — agreement is not correctness.

wrong · Two windows
A periodicity reports a different partner every time. eight kinematic lattices, differing only in the seed of their disturbance, each read by the same instrument. The disturbance repeats every 8 organs at a weight of 0.9: it puts a strong comb at spacing 8 — 0.75 against a band of 0.07 — and the partner it names is 8/10, 8/12, 8/11 across the 8 stems and never 8/13, which is what the position counter finds in every one of them. There is no placement rule in any of these arrangements.

The control a survey would need

A comb no longer shows that a plant computes its pattern, so the survey this site has been specifying for a long time has to change. What it loses is its headline; what it gains is a measurement a botanist can actually make — six requirements, four of them already in the specification, and a quantity nobody has ever reported.

wrong · Control spec
The next organ moves for the last 13, and for no others. One row per organ removed, counted back from the tip of a stem at a rise of 0.005 whose counted pair is 8 and 13. Removing any of the last 13 moves the next organ by 2.6° to 167.6°; removing an older one moves it by at most 0.47°, which is under the azimuth grid. The boundary is at 13, and 13 is the larger parastichy number — so the experiment counts the spirals without measuring an angle.

An experiment a needle could run

For eight instalments the outstanding item has been a survey — photographs, a protractor, hundreds of specimens — and it has not been done. The intervention is a different kind of ask, and a cheaper one: a needle, one apex, and a yes-or-no per ablation. Here is what it would cost, what it would settle, and the four ways it could come out.

wrong · Ablation
The ratio is a U across every rung, and its floor is the number that was reported. The ratio of the second comb to the main comb, on five stems at each of 9 rises spanning two rungs, against the ladder's own coordinate for where each rise sits inside its rung. Both rungs give the same shape: a floor of 0.71 and 0.79 about two thirds of the way up, climbing towards the transition at either end. The dashed line is a transported disturbance with no rule in it at 1.28, which does not vary with the rise at all — a kinematic lattice's angle sequence has no rise in it. Where the rule's curve crosses that line the two accounts are indistinguishable.

The survey loses its second outcome

The survey specification written earlier here names three results the survey could return, and the second — a ratio near or above 1.30, read as evidence against the placement rule — is the one that would have been worth publishing. It does not survive the measurements here. The ratio moves with where the plant sits between two transitions, and it moves again with the colour of the plant's own disturbance.

wrong · Survey spec
On a rung the response is a run of offsets; near a transition it has a hole. One row per rise, from 0.02 at the top to 0.005 at the bottom, and one column per offset: the organ one place back at the left, 14 places back at the right. A cell is filled where removing that organ moves the next organ by more than 2.5°, and empty where it does not. On a rung the filled cells are a run from one to the larger parastichy number — 8, 12, 13 at the pairs shown on the left. Between a rise of 0.02 and 0.008 the run ends at 5 and one more cell is filled at 7, with the offsets between them quiet to under a degree. That isolated column is one place inside the larger number of the pair the stem is climbing towards.

The ablation a plant would survive

The intervention proposed earlier returns a spiral count from a yes-or-no answer, needs no protractor, and was specified at one rise. Measured across the ladder it acquires three conditions a real experiment would have to meet — and one of them is that the plant must not be too coarsely patterned, or nothing will go wrong at all.

wrong · Survey spec
The disturbance with the largest wander leaves none in the sequence. How much of a divergence sequence's variance survives being averaged over blocks, on kinematic lattices. The vertical quantity is B² times the variance of the block means divided by the variance of the sequence, which is one at every block size for independent errors — the arithmetic is normalised for a differenced stream, since a divergence is the difference of two organs' errors. A line that climbs is a sequence with power at frequencies below one per block. The disturbances that remember the last error climb to 32 at a block of 128. The ones inherited between touching organs do not climb at all — 1.06 and 0.83 at the same block — although their own deviates carry ×5 and ×49 an independent stream's variance in exactly this statistic. What they do instead is dig a hole: at block sizes of 8 and 13, which are the offsets they couple at, the statistic falls to 0.22 and 0.21.

The second statistic was the first

The experiment this collection has been specifying was priced as two readings off one sequence, the second of them free. The two readings turn out to be one function looked at twice, so the specification loses a statistic — and gains a cheaper one, a warning about how observables get priced, and a question it could not previously ask.

wrong · Survey spec
For a high pair a miscount does not blur the report: it moves it. The divergence axis from 50° to 145°. For 21/34 and 34/55, the dark band is what the report allows if both counts are right and the pale bands what it allows if either is wrong by one. 21/34 allows 0.308° exactly and 0.931° in all, in 3 pieces: 20/33 at 54.37° and 22/35 at 82.13° beside the true band at 137.48°; 34/55 allows 0.118° exactly and 0.354° in all, in 3 pieces: 33/56 at 109.23° and 35/54 at 113.27° beside the true band at 137.52°. Each wrong band is as narrow as the right one and tens of degrees from it, so the reading does not widen; it becomes a short list of sharp candidates, and neither wrong candidate contains the golden angle.

A count that can be wrong by one

A reported parastichy pair pins the divergence angle to a band 221°/mn wide only if both counts are right. Allowing either to be off by one adds the bands of every neighbouring pair whose counts share no factor, and those bands sit where their own lattices live: for 2/3 they swallow the whole range, and for 34/55 they are two bands as narrow as the true one at 109° and 113°, twenty-five degrees away. So a high count that may be wrong is not a blurred reading but a short list of sharp candidates, costing log₂ 3 bits. And on the Fibonacci pairs, two in every six — 21/34 and 34/55 among them — cannot be miscounted silently by one count at all, because every such miscount shares a factor.

wrong · Count value
What a report of 34 and 55 allows as a count is allowed to drift by one, two and three. The divergence axis from 20° to 180°. Dark: the band a report allows if both counts are right. Pale: the bands of every pair within the tolerance whose counts share no factor and which are the two shortest families somewhere in that range. 34/55 read with a tolerance of 1 allows 3 bands, 0.354° in all, the nearest wrong one 35/54 at 113.27°; 34/55 read with a tolerance of 2 allows 13 bands, 1.550° in all, the nearest wrong one 35/54 at 113.27°; 34/55 read with a tolerance of 3 allows 29 bands, 3.445° in all, the nearest wrong one 37/54 at 126.60°, and 2 more pairs whose bands lie below 20°; 21/34 read with a tolerance of 3 allows 28 bands, 8.767° in all, the nearest wrong one 18/31 at 139.55°, and 2 more pairs whose bands lie below 20°.

A count that drifts by two

A reported pair of 34 and 55 that may be wrong by one allows three sharp bands; allowed to drift by two it allows thirteen, and by three, twenty-nine — and the information lost is exactly the logarithm of that count, because every band is as narrow as the true one. The nearest wrong band stays twenty-four degrees away until a drift of three brings one to eleven. What does not survive is the protection: 21/34 and 34/55 could not be miscounted silently by one, but every Fibonacci pair can be by two, so a counter who drifts by two as readily as by one reports 34/55 silently wrong 9.5 per cent of the time rather than 0.13.

wrong · Count value
The divergence a reading of 34/55 reports when the counter closes the circle early or late. A counter traces each family round 1 + ε of a turn, so both counts are multiplied by 1 + ε and rounded; the horizontal axis is ε in degrees of the circle, out to 54.0° either way. Where the rounded pair shares no factor it is drawn at the centre of the band it would put the divergence in; where it shares one it is a grey tick in the lane below. 34/55 is read right for closing errors under 3.27°; the first silent readings are 33/53 at −9.82° and 35/57 at +9.82°, reporting 54.4° and 82.2°. The silent band nearest the truth is 31/49's, 1.86° from it, at a closing error of 36.0°. Marked: a closing error of 9.8°, which reads 35/57 · reports 82.2°, silently wrong.

Two counts that slip together

A counter who closes the circle a few degrees late counts a sliver of the head twice, in both families at once, so the two counts of a reported pair drift together rather than apart. Coupled that way the count is safer than it was: fourteen Fibonacci pairs in twenty-three admit no silent equal shift of one, against seven that admit no silent single miscount, and 34/55 announces every closing error short of 9.82°. The check is what breaks. Two annuli closed at the same wrong mark pass 17.6 per cent of wrong readings of 34/55 and 76.8 per cent of 13/21's, because a linear relation survives multiplication — and what catches them instead is a protractor good to twelve degrees.

wrong · Count value

The census wants a low count

Four specimens separate the geometry's Fibonacci share of 14.7 per cent from the ninety per cent a grown history gives — if every count is right. Counted with a closing error spread over 7.2°, the same census needs six specimens counted at 13/21, fifty-four at 34/55 and 449 at 55/89, because the geometry's own pairs are all small enough that no closing error under 11° moves them, while a grown plant counted high loses its Fibonacci reading first. Counted at 55/89 with a spread of 9.83° the census reads plants as less Fibonacci than random angles. The count that pins the divergence best is the one a census should avoid.

wrong · Sample size

Counting it again

A reading whose two counts share a factor says the count went wrong, and the specimen is still there to be counted again. Counted afresh, the reading kept is exactly one reading conditioned on not announcing itself — the second chance a silent error gets is matched by the second chance a right reading gets — so a recount changes which specimens a census keeps, not what a kept reading says. At 34/55 with closing errors spread over 7.2° it takes the census from fifteen kept specimens to ten and from about thirty counts to twenty-one, and against scoring every reading it turns 449 counts at 55/89 into 52. It never makes a high count as cheap as counting 13/21 once.

wrong · Sample size

Named alongside it

The objects these essays reach for when they reach for this one.

SpecimenDivergence angleMeasurement errorHonest limitsMeasurementSample sizeIdentifiabilityParastichy pairAutocorrelationDiscriminationFibonacciEvidence

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