A spread that grows with its window
Worth reading first: The damage has a period · Two windows on one stem.
The quantity this thread calls a spread is the worst standard deviation within a residue class of a wrecked stem’s displacement profile, measured over the last hundred and twenty organs of the run. Under ten degrees and the row is periodic; over ten and it is not.
Read the same rows at sixty organs and at a hundred and eighty and the spread is very nearly proportional to the window. That is the whole finding and it is not what a noise level does.
It came out of moving an instrument setting nobody had moved, which is the cheapest thing this collection does and the one that has produced the most corrections.
The arithmetic that makes it a finding
A standard deviation over a sample of a steady quantity with noise on it is flat in the sample size. Read sixty draws or a hundred and eighty from the same distribution and the estimate wobbles but does not trend.
A standard deviation over a sample of a quantity that is sliding grows with the sample, because a longer stretch of a slope has a wider spread of values in it. For a linear slope it grows in exact proportion.
So the ratio of the widest window’s spread to the narrowest is the diagnostic. Flat says noise; three says a linear drift; anything much above three says something else.
What the ratio is
Three, on nearly every row that keeps one verdict at all three windows. g020 cut at
offset 4 reads 0.8, 1.6 and 2.4 degrees. g013 at offset 4 reads 0.3, 0.7 and 1.0.
l013 at offset 4 reads 3.0, 6.1 and 9.1. g005 at offset 7 reads 0.5, 1.0 and 1.6.
The measured ratios run 2.0 to 3.3 against a prediction of exactly 3.0. That is close enough to proportional that the alternative — a flat noise level — is not a live reading of it.
Three rows are excluded from that count because their verdict changes across the windows, and their ratios are 21, 42 and 41. Those are a different effect entirely and mixing them in would have made the population look ragged.
Which means the classes are drifting
The classes are not steady with noise on them. They are moving, slowly, along the run, and the spread over any window is a measurement of how far they move across that window.
That is a small thing per organ. A spread of 1.6 degrees over a hundred and twenty organs is a drift of about a hundredth of a degree an organ, which no reading of a single profile would show and which a spread over one window returns as a small number with no direction attached.
Why a spread hides a drift
Because a standard deviation throws away the order. Take a hundred and twenty numbers climbing steadily from one value to another and shuffle them: the standard deviation is identical and the drift is gone.
So the statistic the thread has been using cannot tell a drifting class from a noisy one at any single window. Reading it at two windows can, and that is the whole method here.
This is the same weakness a summary statistic showed on a crowding question, where a number that discards structure was carrying an ordering that belonged to the instrument.
What a drift would look like directly
The obvious alternative measurement is a slope: fit a line to each class against the organ index and report the gradient. That would name the drift rather than infer it.
It is not what was done here, for a stated reason. Changing the statistic changes every earlier number in the thread, and the point of this reading is to say what the existing statistic has been measuring rather than to replace it. A slope is the right next measurement and it is a different piece of work.
The same argument was made when a second statistic was brought to a crowding question: the new statistic answered the question and the old numbers stopped being comparable, which is a cost worth paying once and not repeatedly.
What it does to the threshold
The line is at ten degrees and the quantity is proportional to the window, so the line means different things at different windows. At sixty organs it admits a drift about three times steeper than at a hundred and eighty.
That is not a defect in the definition. This class moves less than ten degrees over the stretch that is read is a perfectly good property and it is what the threshold tests. It is not the window-free property the word periodic suggests, and the collection has been using the word without the qualification.
The gap survives, which is the reassuring part
The threshold was chosen because the measured spreads separate into two populations with an empty gap between them: 0.12 to 6.09 degrees on the periodic rows and 10.3 and upwards on the rest.
At sixty organs the same rows read 0.1 to 3.0 and 4.0 upwards; at a hundred and eighty, 0.2 to 9.1 and 12.2 upwards. The gap is there at all three windows, so the line is sitting in a gap rather than cutting a continuum, whatever the window.
And the two populations scale differently
That is the second half of it. The rows that are periodic scale by about three. The rows
that are not periodic do not scale at all: l020 at offset 4 reads 12.8, 156.9 and 143.7
degrees, and at offset 5 it reads 149.6, 152.7 and 128.6.
Those are not proportional to anything. A class that is not periodic is wandering rather than sliding, and a wandering class’s spread saturates once the window is long enough to contain the wandering.
So the two populations differ in kind
Which is a stronger statement than the threshold makes. The threshold says one group’s spread is small and the other’s is large. The three windows say one group’s spread is proportional to the window and the other’s is independent of it.
Two quantities that respond differently to an instrument setting are two quantities. That distinction is available for nothing once the readings are taken and it does not appear in the classification at all.
A better test than the threshold
It follows that the ratio is a better classifier than the value. A row whose spread triples with the window is drifting; a row whose spread is flat in the window is wandering; and the two need no threshold at all to be told apart.
That is not adopted here for the same reason the slope is not. It is written down because it is available and because a classification that needs no line drawn in it is worth more than one that needs a line in a gap.
What drifts, physically
A class is the set of organs at one residue modulo the surviving lag, and its level is how far those organs sit from where the control put them. A drifting class means that displacement is slowly growing or shrinking as the run goes on.
That is not a surprise once said. The cut stem and its control are two runs of the same rule from slightly different states, and nothing guarantees their difference is constant — only that it settles into a pattern at one lag, which is what the census measures.
Whether the drift ever stops
A drift of a hundredth of a degree an organ over three hundred organs is three degrees. Over six hundred it would be six, if it kept going at the same rate.
It does not. At the longer run length the same rows read the same spreads at each window —
0.8, 1.6 and 2.4 on g020 at both lengths — so the drift is a property of the window rather
than something accumulating without bound. Whatever slides, slides locally.
Which narrows what the drift can be
That is worth pausing on because it rules something out. If the classes were separating steadily — the cut stem’s arrangement slowly walking away from the control’s — the spread at a fixed window would grow as the run got longer.
It does not. So the classes are not separating; the profile is locally sloped in a way that is the same everywhere along it, which is closer to a systematic offset between neighbouring organs than to a divergence between two runs.
The rows where the ratio is off
Not every row gives three. A handful come back at 2.0 to 2.5, which is under proportional, and those are rows whose spreads are smallest in absolute terms — 0.2, 0.3 and 0.4 degrees.
At that size the reading is close to whatever floor the azimuth grid imposes: the grid is 1,536 samples of the circle, a quarter of a degree a step, so a spread of a fifth of a degree is under one grid step and is being quantised rather than measured.
So the smallest spreads are not measurements
That is worth stating rather than leaving in a footnote. A spread of 0.2 degrees over a hundred and twenty organs on a grid whose step is 0.234 degrees is a statement about the grid.
It does not affect the classification, because every one of those rows is periodic at every window by a wide margin. It does mean the proportionality should be read off the larger spreads, and it is: the rows at 3.0, 6.1 and 9.1 degrees are several grid steps at every window.
A block that was the grid rounding a constant is the standing example here of a quantity read below the grid’s own step, and it is why every small number in this collection is checked against the step before it is believed.
What this does not touch
The classification’s content is unchanged. Twenty-five of thirty rows are periodic at the working window, the same twenty-five as before, and the five that are not are the same five.
What changes is the sentence that goes with the number. It was these classes are steady and it is now these classes move less than ten degrees across the stretch that is read, and they are moving.
Where the same shape has appeared before
This is the third quantity in the collection to turn out to be partly about its own instrument. A residual that looked ordered belonged to the window it was measured over; a fragility belonged to a reading rather than to a lattice.
Both of those were found the same way: read the same object through a different setting and compare. Neither needed a new measurement, only a second value of an old one.
The drift is not the same at every lag
One reading the three windows make available and nobody had asked for. Sorting the rows by the lag they kept, the rows at a lag of 8 have the smallest spreads — 0.4 to 1.6 degrees at the working window — and the rows at a lag of 5 the largest among the periodic ones.
That is the direction a sampling argument would predict rather than a physical one: a class at a lag of 8 has fifteen samples in a hundred and twenty organs and a class at a lag of 4 has thirty. More samples of the same slope give the same spread, so the ordering is not about the count, and no account of it is offered.
What a proportional spread means for comparing rows
It means two rows read at the same window are comparable and two rows read at different windows are not. Every row in the thread is read at the same window, so nothing published is affected.
It also means a spread should not be quoted without its window, in the way an angle should not be quoted without saying whether it is folded. Both are conventions that are invisible while only one setting is ever used, and both become mistakes the moment a second appears.
The cheapest version of this check
Two windows, not three. The third adds confidence about linearity and the first two are enough to tell a drift from a noise level: if the spread roughly doubles when the window doubles, it is a drift.
That costs one extra read of runs already grown. It is the same shape as the run-length check — one alternative value, run once, compared — and it is the habit this collection keeps having to relearn.
What a second window costs and buys
Four minutes, over the whole census, because the stems are already grown and a window is a read rather than a run.
What it bought was a change in what the word periodic means in this collection, a distinction between two populations that the threshold does not make, and three rows whose verdict turned out to be the window’s. That is a good return on a setting that had a justification attached to it and had never been varied.
What a reader should carry
That a spread proportional to its window is measuring a drift, and that these are. The classes a wrecked stem settles into are sliding at about a hundredth of a degree an organ, which no single reading would show.
And that the two populations the classification separates differ in more than size: one scales with the window and the other does not, which is a cleaner distinction than the threshold and costs nothing once the readings exist.
What the picture at the top shows
One line per wrecked cut, from its spread at sixty organs through a hundred and twenty to a hundred and eighty. The dashed guide is exact proportionality, drawn from the mean of the narrow-window readings.
Nearly every line runs parallel to it. A flat set of lines would have said the classes are steady with noise on them; a set climbing faster than the guide would have said something was accumulating. They climb with it.
The one line
Class spreads are proportional to the reading window — 0.8, 1.6 and 2.4 degrees at sixty, a hundred and twenty and a hundred and eighty organs on one row, and the same triple on nearly every row that keeps a verdict.
A spread that scales with its sample is measuring a drift, so the classes this thread calls steady are sliding at about a hundredth of a degree an organ, and the ten-degree threshold is a line on a quantity that depends on how much is read.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- A cycle sums to a whole turn — both name artefact, claim testing, damage profile, honest limits, measurement error, residue class
- The rows nobody added up — both name claim testing, damage profile, honest limits, measurement error, residue class
- A difference forgets a drift — both name artefact, claim testing, honest limits, summary statistic
- A dip with no outer edge — both name artefact, honest limits, measurement error, summary statistic
- A list that was a rounding — both name artefact, claim testing, honest limits, measurement error
- A width read off a staircase — both name artefact, honest limits, measurement error, summary statistic
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
ArtefactClaim testingDamage profileDriftHonest limitsInstrument settingMeasurement errorNoise floorPeriodicityReading windowResidue classSummary statistic