Twenty angles instead of nine
Worth reading first: How long a stem takes to settle · The angle is an output.
A stem is grown from a starting angle, and where it ends up is the question the settling thread exists to answer. The table it answers from is grown from nine of them a cell: 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, the golden angle, 150, 165 and 180 degrees.
Nine is a small number to carry that much, and the file that uses them says so. It computes a binomial standard error of about 0.17 on each cell and declines to read a spread of 0.056 against it.
Eleven more, of two kinds
The eleven added here are not one group and the distinction is load-bearing.
Eight midpoints — 50, 70, 90, 110, 128.75, 143.75, 157.5 and 172.5 — halve the spacing inside the range the nine already cover. That is a refinement, and it is what a basin width can be read off.
Three below forty — 10, 20 and 30 — extend the range downwards. The nine start at forty and nothing says why. That is an extension, and it answers a different question.
Why the nine are kept
Because a table that re-sampled from scratch would have made every comparison an argument about two designs. The twenty contain the nine, so every number the old table reported is answered from the same cache rather than measured again.
That is the discipline the slot design followed when it went from six lattices to twenty-four, and it is what makes a difference between the two tables a difference in the sampling rather than in the code.
The cost
Four falloff exponents by eight rises by twenty starting angles is 640 runs against 288, each grown to twelve hundred organs. The three hundred and fifty-two new ones took about twelve minutes.
Two hundred and seven of the 640 settle, against 117 of the 288. So the count of settled runs nearly doubles and the share falls, which is the first thing the extra angles say.
The share falls at every rise
At the working exponent the nine give 78, 67, 78, 56, 33, 11, 11 and 11 per cent across the eight rises. The twenty give 70, 60, 60, 30, 20, 10, 5 and 5.
Every one of those is lower. A fall at one rise would be sampling; a fall at all eight is a bias, and finding out which of the two groups of new angles caused it is why they were counted apart.
And it is the refinement, not the extension
The nine settle at 40.6 per cent over the whole table. The eight midpoints settle at 25.8 per cent. The three below forty settle at 25.0 per cent.
So the angles outside the original range behave like the angles between the original ones, and both settle at about two thirds the rate of the nine themselves. Extending the range did nothing unusual; refining it did, and that is the finding this sampling produced.
What the extension was for
It is worth saying what the three below forty were expected to do, since they did nothing special. The nine span 40 to 180 degrees and a divergence can be anything from nothing to a half turn once folded.
So the range had a floor with no reason attached to it. Ten, twenty and thirty are the obvious continuation of the nine’s own spacing, and the answer is that a stem started at ten degrees settles about as often as one started at fifty.
What the refinement was for
Two things. The first is the error bar: a share over twenty runs has a binomial standard error of about 0.11 where a share over nine has 0.17, so every cell of the table is read more precisely.
The second is basins. With the angles twice as close together, a destination reached from several consecutive starting angles has a width that can be quoted, and some of them are wide.
The error, halved
Over the whole table the binomial standard error on a pooled share falls from 5.8 per cent to 3.7. On an individual cell it falls from about 17 to about 11.
That is what doubling a sample buys and it is worth stating that it is not more. Twenty runs a cell is still a small number, and the readings this table supports are orderings and presences rather than precise shares.
Which is why the destinations matter more than the shares
The settling file’s own reading makes this point: the share of starting angles that reach a lattice is a binomial over nine runs, and the four exponent columns are the same column inside its error.
The times and the destinations are not shares. A destination is a measured angle and either the table reaches it or it does not, so a list of them is not a statistic with an error bar on it in the same way.
And the destination list grows
At half a degree the table reaches eighteen distinct destinations against fifteen. The three new ones are 55.2 degrees counting 6/7, 132.5 degrees, and 162.1 degrees counting 9/11.
Every one of the three is off both ladders, and the count of destinations that sit on the golden or Lucas sequence is five at nine angles and five at twenty. So the on-ladder targets were already enumerated and the off-ladder ones were not.
The sequences, which were a lower bound
The destinations sort into additive sequences — each pair two consecutive terms of a rule where every term is the sum of the two before it — and the count was ten.
At twenty angles it is thirteen, and the arrangements go from twenty to twenty-four. Ten was what nine angles found, not what the rule reaches.
And the steep-only list
Three destinations were reported as reachable only by a steep falloff — 42.3, 47.9 and 148.1 degrees. At twenty angles the list runs to five, with 55.2 and 162.1 joining it.
Both additions are countable and both are two consecutive terms of an additive sequence, so what that list is like survives. How long it is was a property of the sampling, which is the second time a list in this thread has turned out to be.
The first time was a rounding
Worth recalling, because the two are different failures. The steep-only list runs to thirteen entries when the destinations are read to a tenth of a degree rather than half a degree, and ten of those thirteen are destinations a shallow exponent reaches within a tenth or two of one.
That was a resolution problem. This is a sampling problem, and a list can suffer from both at once: it is thirteen at a tenth of a degree with nine angles, five at half a degree with twenty, and seventeen at a tenth of a degree with twenty.
So a list has two settings attached to it
Any count of destinations in this collection depends on the resolution it is grouped at and on the number of starting angles it is grown from. Both have now been varied and both change it.
The honest form is to quote the count with both settings: eighteen destinations at half a degree from twenty starting angles. That is longer than fifteen destinations and it is the number that means something.
What did not change
The five on-ladder destinations. Doubling the sampling found no new destination on either the golden or the Lucas sequence, which is the one count in this table that appears to be complete.
That is worth as much as the three that were found. A list that grows when the sampling grows is a lower bound; a list that does not is a candidate for being the whole of something.
And the wall
The wall — the rise below which fewer than half the starting angles reach a lattice — is where it was. What changed is the spread between the four exponents’ walls, which falls from a factor of 1.97 to 1.18, and their ordering, which reverses completely.
Neither ordering means anything, and that is the point. The conclusion that the exponents do not separate is confirmed and the arithmetic that had looked less settled than the conclusion was noise.
What twenty angles cannot do
They cannot resolve a basin narrower than the spacing, which is 6.25 to 10 degrees over most of the range. A destination reached from one angle alone says nothing about how wide its basin is.
And they cannot turn a share over twenty runs into a precise number. The table is still a table of presences and orderings, read a little more finely.
What forty would buy
Halving the spacing again would be another 640 runs and about twenty-five minutes, and it would resolve basins down to three degrees and take the error on a cell to about 8 per cent.
Whether that is worth it depends on whether the questions left are about widths. The destination list would probably grow again — every refinement so far has found off-ladder destinations — and the wall would not move.
Where the nine came from
They are not arbitrary and they are not a design either. The list is 40, 60, 80, 100, 120, the golden angle, 150, 165 and 180 — five round tens, then a step of seventeen and a half to the golden angle, then fifteen, then fifteen, then fifteen.
That is what a list looks like when it is written to span a range and to include the value somebody wants to see. The golden angle is in it because a stem started at the golden angle is the case the whole subject is about, and the round numbers are in it because round numbers are what a person types.
Neither reason is bad. Both are reasons for a list to be unrepresentative of the circle, and the midpoints are what shows it.
What a random sample would have been
The alternative design is twenty angles drawn at random from the range, which would have no structure to be unrepresentative in. It was not used and it is worth saying why.
A random list cannot contain the old one, so every number would have been re-measured and the comparison would have been between two designs. And a random list makes a basin width harder to read, since the spacing is irregular by construction.
The midpoint design keeps the old table inside the new one and gives an even spacing. What it gives up is the ability to say anything about the circle as a whole, which this table has never been claiming.
What the table is for, said again
It is not an estimate of how often a stem settles. It is a comparison across rises and across falloff exponents, made by holding the starting angles fixed and moving one thing at a time.
For that purpose a biased list of angles is harmless as long as it is the same list in every cell, which it is. The bias cancels in a comparison and does not cancel in a share, which is why the shares are the numbers that moved and the orderings are the numbers that did not.
And where a share was being read anyway
One place, and it is the wall. The wall is defined as the rise where the share of starting angles that reach a lattice falls through a half, so it reads a share and reads it against a level.
That is the one number in the thread the bias could have moved, and it turns out not to have moved it — the four exponents’ walls sit closer together at twenty angles than at nine, not further apart. The level is arbitrary enough that a uniform bias shifts every column the same way.
What a reader should carry
That every settling number in this collection is from twenty starting angles rather than from the angles, and that the count was nine until now.
And that the eleven added split into a refinement and an extension for a reason: the share fell at every rise, and separating the two groups is what showed the fall came from the refinement rather than from the wider range.
What the picture at the top shows
Twenty columns, one per starting angle, and eight rows, one per rise, coarse at the top. A filled cell is a run that reached a lattice and its tone names the destination; a pale cell is a run that never settles.
The short marks above the top row are the nine angles the table was grown from. Runs of one tone across neighbouring columns are basins, and the pale region growing towards the bottom of the picture is the wall.
The one line
The settling table is now grown from twenty starting angles rather than nine — eight midpoints and three below the old floor — which is 640 runs against 288 and halves the error on every cell from about 17 per cent to about 11.
The destination list goes from fifteen to eighteen with every addition off both ladders, the additive sequences from ten to thirteen, and the settling share falls at every rise for a reason that turns out to belong to the original nine.
What links here
Computed from the collection, not written here: the essays that point at this one.
Shares its objects with
Essays that name at least two of the same things, and that neither author linked.
- When nine rises are enough — both name claim testing, honest limits, measurement error, resolution, sample size, sampling
- Every rise of a band — both name claim testing, honest limits, resolution, sample size, sampling
- Four accounts of one angle — both name claim testing, honest limits, measurement error, null model, resolution
- The alternation is not a period — both name claim testing, honest limits, null model, resolution, sampling
- A band with nothing inside it — both name claim testing, honest limits, resolution, sampling
- A dip with no outer edge — both name honest limits, measurement error, null model, sampling
Named objects
A flat tag is an object no other essay names yet.
BasinClaim testingDivergenceFalloff exponentHonest limitsMeasurement errorNull modelResolutionSample sizeSamplingSettlingStarting angle